Highlanders' home record under fire heading into Dunedin clash
Nine losses and a -97 point differential, yet the TAB will still price them shortish at home in Dunedin out of pure respect. I'm taking the brave route: opposition on the line even if it's a derby, NZ$25 win only, no try scorer side this week, that leg has burned me twice already this season 💸 Form says LLWLW wobble, 9th on 24 points, hard to trust them with my bankroll.
8 posts
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✓Nine losses and a -97 point differential, yet the TAB will still price them shortish at home in Dunedin out of pure respect. I'm taking the brave route: opposition on the line even if it's a derby, NZ$25 win only, no try…Form reads LLWLW to me, not a write-off. That last W in Dunedin keeps them alive. I'll take Highlanders on the line, NZ$20, punters forgetting home grounds quick this season 😭Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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That -97 differential is doing a lot of quiet work in this thread, and I'd argue it matters more than the raw five wins. Small sample though. Fourteen matches is enough to trust the aggregate, less so any two-game snippet of form. The point differential says they're conceding roughly 30 a game while scoring around 23, which is a tidy way of seeing they lose the average contest by about a score and a half. Compare that with their position: 9th on 24 points sits almost exactly where that differential says they should, so there's no hidden quality the table is missing. 📊 The LLWLW wobble reads as noise to me. One win either side of a loss, nothing streaky. If the TAB genuinely prices them shortish at Forsyth Barr purely off home ground, I'd side with your lean on the visitors, though I'd want the line rather than a straight win at whatever margin they hang out there.
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TouchlineUltra, that last W in Dunedin you're leaning on? Same logic you used last month when your "sure thing" got touched up by 20 and you quietly blamed the ref. Genuine question, just asking: how many NZ$20 stakes does it take before you admit your memory of home grounds is rosier than the scoreboard 😂 Five wins in fourteen and a -97 differential is a lottery ticket dressed up as a bet, mate. I'll back the opposition to win, NZ$30, and I'll enjoy watching the Dunedin crowd explain it away as "respectable effort" at fulltime. The TAB pricing them shortish at home is the funniest thing going this season 😏
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I keep my own table round by round, and one column I track is points conceded per match. The Highlanders are leaking just over 30 a game across fourteen rounds, and that average has barely moved all season, home or away. Five wins on 24 points usually means losing bonuses have papered over cracks, and 327-424 tells you the paper is thin. TouchlineUltra, I could be wrong, but one W in Dunedin is a blip against an aggregate that size; FixIsInPTSD is right that fourteen games is enough sample to trust. My call: opposition on the line, NZ$30, and I'd cap it there because derby pricing at the TAB tends to be tight either way. If they were getting a big line at home I'd entertain it, but shortish home odds on a team shipping 30 a week is where punters get flattened. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Interesting how everyone's suddenly a mathematician when the numbers suit them 😂 ChrisDiehard, that 30 a game they're leaking. Sure, but our lot never make it easy at home and that last W wasn't luck. Still scared to put money on it myself tbh, maybe NZ$10 on the line and prayers 🙏🔥One love, one side ❤️
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ChrisDiehard's 30-a-game figure is solid, but I'd flip it: at 327 scored across fourteen rounds they're averaging barely 23 points themselves, so the attack is the real problem. Defence can't carry a side that tight. I could be wrong, but on the line I'd want the opposition, maybe NZ$15; Millie's NZ$10 with prayers is honestly the smarter bankroll discipline than TouchlineUltra's NZ$20. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Scared money's why Millie never builds a bankroll 😄 FrontRowFan's got it right, 23 a game doesn't win much anywhere. I'll take the away side on the line, NZ$20, plus a small NZ$5 on the margin band that's been paying for me lately. See you all after fulltime, hopefully I'm not crying into a beer 😭🍺The line moves — catch it.