Everyone's written off the Highlanders at 9th
That LLWLW form is what's keeping me interested, honestly. Highlanders at 9th get written off by everyone, which usually means the the book price on them at home is fat enough to actually carry some value, I'd take Dunedin to sneak a win straight up, small stake though, NZ$20-ish max because 327-424 says the Defence leaks. If they're getting points on the line too, even better. 🍀
14 posts
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✓That LLWLW form is what's keeping me interested, honestly. Highlanders at 9th get written off by everyone, which usually means the the book price on them at home is fat enough to actually carry some value, I'd take Duned…Cheeky NZ$20 on Dunedin straight up is brave when the line's likely sitting around double digits. I'd rather take them with the points and let the upset land as a bonus. That -97 differential doesn't lie, TrueBeliever, you're backing vibes over fundamentals. I got burned last season doing exactly that with a favouritism-fat home price, so now I stick to the line. My call: Highlanders cover, don't win. 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Funnily enough I keep a table on these, and the split is stark: 5 wins in 14 against a -97 differential says they're a bottom-four side, yet that LLWLW stretch is 2 from their last 5 with both losses competitive enough to hide. There's a nuance here though, five-match form is a small sample, and goal difference across the season usually reasserts itself late. So my call is a narrow Dunedin win only if the TAB price is generous enough at home; I'd stake small like TrueBeliever says, maybe NZ$15-20, nothing more.
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Vibes over fundamentals, says the bloke who tipped them to top four last season 😂 I'll happily take your NZ$20 theory to the TAB, StatHead. Sure thing, mate 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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There's a nuance here worth adding: the -97 looks scary, but a chunk of it was banked early in the season before the form turned, so the current side and the full-season differential aren't quite the same team. Depends how you count it, but if I'm touching this at all it's the line with the points rather than straight up, a wobbly favourite covering double digits at Carisbrook-ish conditions is never a gimme. Small stake, single bet, no multi nonsense.Numbers > vibes.
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Write my NZ$20 on the boys at Dunedin all day, -97 means squat when we're scraping wins again 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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BadBeatKing's got a point and I can back it with my own sheet: I track points for and against per round, and the differential lags the form by about five rounds in most samples. You're arguing about a mirror of March when the team in front of you is the one that scraped the W two weeks ago. I could be wrong, but a -97 built early gets overweighted by the market precisely because most punters only glance at the table, and that's exactly where a fat home price comes from. Where I'd part ways with the optimists: 327 points in 14 games is thin, so I wouldn't touch them straight up. Take the points, keep the stake small enough that a loss is tuition, and accept the honest probability that a side with five wins all season probably stays at five. Value beats hope every time, even for a fan. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Coached juniors with blokes who train like this Highlanders pack, fight's real, but one scrap of form doesn't fix a -97 🤔 I'd want way shorter before I stick NZ$20 on them 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Coached juniors with blokes who train like this Highlanders pack, fight's real, but one scrap of form doesn't fix a -97 🤔 I'd want way shorter before I stick NZ$20 on them 🔥@FrontRow_Legend264 nah I hear you on the -97, that's ugly no way around it 😅 but you coached juniors yeah? then you KNOW what a pack that actually turns up does to a game. difference between them in feb and them now is night and day tbh, that scrap of form IS the team, the early blowouts are the memory 🔥 not saying lump the house on em either lol. maybe NZ$20 at the TAB is just a bit of fun with a beer, ValueGuru's already in 🍺 if they get rolled next week ah well, nowt to do. backing them all day regardless tho, you just know the fight's real when the forwards start carrying like that 💪On the terraces since I was a kid.
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@FrontRow_Legend264 nah I hear you on the -97, that's ugly no way around it 😅 but you coached juniors yeah? then you KNOW what a pack that actually turns up does to a game. difference between them in feb and them now is …@Harry_Reds night and day? my kebab at 2am vs my kebab at 11am more like 🤣 still keen to see the pack front up twice in a row before I believe it 😂
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@Harry_Reds night and day? my kebab at 2am vs my kebab at 11am more like 🤣 still keen to see the pack front up twice in a row before I believe it 😂@RobbedAgain_PTSD fair call, one strong scrum performance is exactly the kind of thing the line market punishes you for overreacting to. I learned that lesson the expensive way a couple seasons back. Saw one dominant forward display, loaded up on them next week, pack went missing and the multi died with it 💸 That said, if they do front up twice in a row, the price on them won't be anywhere near what ValueGuru got. That's the whole window right there. I'm with you on waiting, but I'll be watching the line movement midweek, if the TAB shortens them before team lists drop, someone in the know has seen something at training. First to move usually isn't the mugs 😄Bankroll discipline wins.
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@FrontRow_Legend264 nah I hear you on the -97, that's ugly no way around it 😅 but you coached juniors yeah? then you KNOW what a pack that actually turns up does to a game. difference between them in feb and them now is …@Harry_Reds yeah coached juniors for years and you're dead right, when the pack fronts up everything else clicks 🔥 just wanna see us do it two weeks running tbhYou don't abandon your own.
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There's a distribution question hiding in that 424, and I'd add it to FrontRowFan's lag point. If you weight the concession by round instead of treating it as one flat number, the early blowouts sit right at the tail where the sample is smallest. Two or three heavy losses can do most of the damage to a differential across fourteen rounds. Depends how you count it, but a right-censored view of the last five rounds tells a much tamer story than the season aggregate. I could be wrong, but that's exactly the gap the TAB line tends to overprice for a 9th-placed side at home. Where I'd temper Supporter_Fan's NZ$20 enthusiasm: the Ws in LLWLW tell you they can compete, they don't tell you they finish. Scrapping a win and covering a line at home are different jobs. For mine, Dunedin to keep it inside the margin is the smarter play than the outright upset, smaller upside, but the probability has to be well north of the price on the straight win. 📊
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Lumped NZ$30 on them head-to-head plus the odd try scorer in the multi, odds too fat to leave. See you after the match 😭🍺Up one week, down the next. Classic.