Everyone's writing off Counties Manukau after two thrashings
I'm with you on this one, Counties at Pukekohe is a totally different animal. The 47:24 against Southland and grinding out that 22:19 at Northland say plenty, only Otago made it look ugly here. Took them on the line at the bookmaker for Hawke's Bay on 3 October, small stake NZ$20 into the weekend multi. If the line drifts past double digits I'll top it up, value over a big price every time. 💸
12 posts
-
✓Josh, mostly agree, though there's a nuance here: away from Pukekohe they've leaked 33 and 19 against Auckland and Northland, while at home it's 47 and 50. The Otago thumping was in Pukekohe too, so the venue bump isn't automatic. How I'd count it, two home wins out of three with an average margin of +25 only if you bin the Otago game, and that's a small sample though. I'd back them straight up against Hawke's Bay on 3 October, but I wouldn't touch the line until I see how they handle a fresh opponent's attack. 📊Numbers > vibes.
-
Josh, mostly agree, though there's a nuance here: away from Pukekohe they've leaked 33 and 19 against Auckland and Northland, while at home it's 47 and 50. The Otago thumping was in Pukekohe too, so the venue bump isn't …Fair point on the Otago game being at Pukekohe, BadBeatKing, that 50 spoils the venue story a bit. Still reckon home form holds more weight here, 47 against Southland and the gritty Northland win came off a short turnaround, and Hawke's Bay travelling south in October is a different assignment. I've already put NZ$20 on Counties straight up in the TAB multi, happy to wear it if it doesn't land 😤Value over a big price 💸
-
Matchday_88, didn't you tip Counties to beat Otago too? How'd that 50-pointer treat your bankroll 😂 I'll take Hawke's Bay, cheers 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
-
Took the 50 vs Otago on the chin, cheers Andy 😂 still backing our lot at home, they never make it easy 🔥 Hawke's Bay won't enjoy Pukekohe 💪One love, one side ❤️
-
Pulled my tracking sheet out before replying, and one detail nobody's flagged: Counties' two home wins came with a combined margin of +40, while the Otago loss sat right between them schedule-wise, so the form line is more like a sawtooth than a curve. I'll take Hawke's Bay on the day but the smart play for a punter might be avoiding the head-to-head altogether - small sample though, five games tells you very little about how a side travels in October.
-
Sawtooth or not FixIsIn, that Northland away win came off a short turnaround, hard out 🤔 Gritty when it counts, they'll front on the 3rd 💪
-
Sawtooth or not FixIsIn, that Northland away win came off a short turnaround, hard out 🤔 Gritty when it counts, they'll front on the 3rd 💪@Supporter_23 fair point on the short turnaround, but one gritty win doesn't fix a sawtooth 😅 I coached against that kind of inconsistency for years, you never know which mob front up 🤬On the terraces since I was a kid.
-
I'd add one angle nobody's raised yet: the Otago result looks worse than it was if you weight by game state. Counties were still within touching distance at 21:24 in the third quarter before the wheels came off, so you're really judging them on maybe fifteen bad minutes rather than a full eighty. Against that, the Northland win on a short turnaround tells you the conditioning and the set-piece held up when it mattered. I could be wrong, but if the TAB line lands anywhere near single digits for Hawke's Bay on the 3rd, that's where I'd want my NZ$, home form at Pukekohe has been genuinely two-sided this season (that 47 against Southland plus a gritty one in Whangārei), while the blowout was a schedule and game-state artefact as much as a talent gap. Context matters here, and the sawtooth read from FixIsInPTSD is closer to the truth than either the doomers or the romantics will admit.Do the math before you argue.
-
Fifteen bad minutes? Nah, those wheels stayed off till the final whistle 😂 sawtooth form means you never know which Counties turns up, so anyone here slamming down good money on the 3rd is braver than me 🤬 I'll be yelling from the terrace instead, way safer for the wallet 💪You don't abandon your own.
-
@StandsGuy88 😂 terrace yelling never fixed a scrum mate, I've coached enough of those fiftteen minute collapses to know one win flips a sawtooth quick 💪 you just know they'll turn up at home 🤬
-
I backed them the same way last month and it bit me, so hear me out. Went Otago head-to-head thinking Counties' home form would carry, 21:50 later my multi was dead before the weekend was out 😭 That sawtooth read from FixIsIn is spot on. They're feast or famine at Navigation Homes, and the bookies know it, that's why the price on the home side will be juicy for the Hawke's Bay clash on the 3rd. Still, I'm having a small flutter - straight head-to-head Counties and a nibble on the odd try scorer, kept off the line this time. Twenty in stakes, maybe forty back if it lands, nothing that hurts the bankroll if the bad fifteen minutes show up again. StandsGuy88 yelling from the terrace is the smart play, but us punters never do smart 😅 See you after the match.The line moves — catch it.