Counties Manukau just beat Northland away
Backed Counties at Northland last week and it landed, but I'm not chasing that high here. The Otago thrashing at Navigation Homes (50 points!) is still fresh in my head, this mob can look like a different team depending on the day, and that makes them impossible to trust at short odds.
My call: Hawke's Bay on the line. Whatever price the TAB is offering around -4 or so, I'll take the Bay plus the start. Staking NZ$30 single, no multi legs on this one, coin flip games deserve singles only. Learned that lesson the hard way plenty of times. 😭
15 posts
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✓The swing is wild when you count it properly: 47 at home to Southland, then 21 conceded... actually 50 conceded to Otago, then a 22:19 grind at Northland four days' short of two weeks later. I could be wrong, but home games are the tell here, 2-1 at Navigation Homes, both wins comfortable, and Hawke's Bay on 3 October is another Pukekohe fixture. I'd lean Counties but only a nibble, NZ$20-30 stake, because that Otago scoreline means the floor is nowhere near where the odds imply. 📊
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The swing is wild when you count it properly: 47 at home to Southland, then 21 conceded... actually 50 conceded to Otago, then a 22:19 grind at Northland four days' short of two weeks later. I could be wrong, but home ga…That Whangarei grind won my head-to-head leg but cost me the try scorer, typical 💸 Hawke's Bay at home though? Small one, NZ$10 on Counties, purely because I've seen them turn up at Navigation Homes.The line moves — catch it.
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I could be wrong, but the tape says home venue alone won't save them, Otago hung 50 at Navigation Homes. I'd wait for the line; no stake until Hawke's Bay's price drifts past fair value.Do the math before you argue.
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Nah lads, Hawke's Bay for me all day, NZ$20 at the TAB 🏉🔥 my boys, I just know they turn up — sorry Steuben's mob 😂Heart with the team, head on pause.
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I keep a spreadsheet on these blokes every round and the swing from the Otago game to the Northland win is genuinely one of the sharpest I've logged this Bunnings NPC season - but the caveat first: that's four data points, small sample though it may be, so read it loosely. Here's my angle, and nobody's touched it yet: the home/away split. Both Counties wins (Southland, Northland pattern aside. Well, Southland at home, Northland away) came when they weren't getting bullied up front, while the two losses share a common thread in a collapsing set piece. Hawke's Bay away is a different animal to Northland away, so I'd side with FrontRowFan on waiting for the line rather than the NZ$10 sentiment punts. There's a nuance here too - 22:19 away flatters the attack when the real story was a defensive grind. If the TAB price on Counties drifts anywhere near generous by 3 October, I'll take NZ$25 of my bankroll (roughly 5% of it) on the home side; if it's tight, I'm sitting on my hands.
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Sorry Supporter_Fan, you backed Hawke's Bay with NZ$20 just off heart? 😱 Otago hung 50 on these blokes at Navigation Homes four days before they beat Northland, no one here knows which Counties side shows up Saturday 🔥 spreadsheet fella's right, four games is nowt. Chucking NZ$10 on Counties anyway, ah well, nowt to do 🤬You don't abandon your own.
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FixIsInPTSD's spreadsheet mirrors mine almost exactly, and I'd add one angle nobody's raised yet: scoring context matters. Counties won at Northland 22:19. A tight, low-scoring grind. The Otago and Auckland losses were shootouts (50 and 43 conceded), which tells me their defence travels badly when the tempo lifts. Hawke's Bay on 3 October at Navigation Homes will probably drag them into exactly the kind of slow game that suited them at Whangārei. I could be wrong, but if the market prices Hawke's Bay as clear favourites I'll take Counties at home for a modest NZ$30 straight. Supporter_Fan's heart bet is fine with NZ$20, but backing off pure feeling is how bankrolls get munted, at least you sized it sensibly, mate. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Fair dinkum some of yous are talking yourselves out of it 😂 ChrisDiehard387 saying "tight low-scoring grind" like that tells us anything, 21:50 at home to Otago four days earlier, mate, the whole season's a grind nobody can read 🤬 Spreadsheet fella logging four games and calling it data? Nowt to do with what shows up on 3 October tbh. I coach the juniors lads, I know Jekyll-and-Hyde when I see it. Could be either Counties side or either Hawke's Bay side, that's the coin flip. Anyway, throwing NZ$10 my lot at the TAB, Magpies at Pukekohe 💪🙏 ah well, nowt to do. GET IN MAGS 🔥On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Read it differently: home games split 2-1 for Counties, both losses on the road. Back at Pukekohe I'd take them, NZ$15 of my bank, nothing heroic.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing's home record bit ignores that 50-burger Otago dropped at Pukekohe 😱 No way I'm trusting either Counties side shows up. NZ$5 max, tbh. Ah well, nowt to do 🤷On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Counties conceding fifty at their own gaff and everyone's suddenly a banker at Pukekohe 😂 stick your NZ$15 on, remind me of your ROI come full time 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Had the misfortune of travelling to watch Counties in Whangarei once and they just never turned up the whole second half 😱 reckon this away win means nothing till they defend properly at Pukekohe again. $10 straight is brave, Josh, you just know the defence might not show 💪 ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.