Counties Manukau at home to Hawke's Bay on 3 October, who wins?
Home win for me, Steelers by a landing. They showed proper grit away at Northland (22:19) and that 47 they hung on Southland at Pukekohe says plenty about how they go at Navigation Homes. Hawke's Bay are no pushover but I'll take the head-to-head in a TAB double with the line, decent value over just backing them straight. 💸
11 posts
-
✓Grit at Northland I'll grant you, but I'd pump the brakes slightly before loading up the stake. Count how the Pukekohe form actually reads across the sample: 47 on Southland, yes, but then 21-50 rolled by Otago at the same ground a week and a half later. Home venue alone doesn't settle it, there's a nuance there that a single blowout win tends to hide. That said, I still lean your way. The 33-43 at Auckland and the Otago loss were against stronger opposition than what Hawke's Bay bring on the road, and the 22-19 at Northland showed they can close out a tight one when the scrum's going backwards. If the TAB line sits anywhere near even on the home side, I'd take the Steelers by a converted try, though I'd stake modestly rather than confidently, small sample, four matches, and two of them ugly.Numbers > vibes.
-
That Otago game is exactly why I'd have the away side in this one. Steelers looked sharp against Southland, then ten days later they're shipping 50 at their own ground, that's a form line you can't trust with your bankroll. I had them on the multi last week and the Northland win landed, but laying any real stake on a team that swings 47 to 50 at the same venue? The Magpies at home odds will be decent value, I'd take Hawke's Bay to cover at minimum. 😭Up one week, down the next. Classic.
-
One Otago stinker and suddenly ValueGuru's off the home side entirely? That the same genius who tipped Auckland to roll them last month and watched the Steelers hang 33 on the road? 😂 Sure thing, mate, I'm with the TAB on this one, Hawke's Bay away from home isn't exactly a banker either. 🤡💸
-
chloe's got a fair point there, one bad night doesn't make a season 😄 seen worse from better sides, believe me. that otago game still sticks in my throat though, shipping 50 at your own patch is hard to forgive, no matter how you dress it up. i've watched the steelfers since the amateur days and they've always been a funny mob at pukekohe, brilliant one saturday, asleep the next. for what it's worth i lean home win too, that northland grind away showed a bit of spine, but i'd keep the stake modest. hawke's bay will come to run it and if the steelers' defence nods off like it did against otago it could get ugly quick. small punt on the home side, maybe a few dollars on the margin just for interest. ah well, we'll seeSeen it all, lads.
-
Funny how everyone's suddenly a form expert after one Otago mauling 😏 Steelers at Pukekohe on 3 October, my TAB's already sweating. Chloe, what price did you actually get, or are we talking vibes again? 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
Chloe's onto something here, one dodgy night doesn't wipe out a season. I watched that Otago flogging on the telly after a run through the Kaimais and nearly turned it off, but back in my day the Steelers could look hopeless one week and world-beaters the next at Pukekohe. That said, Hawke's Bay away from home isn't a banker either, so I'd keep the stake small before piling in 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
-
Northland scraped home by three and suddenly the Steelers are world-beaters again 😏 My TAB slip says Hawke's Bay frighten nobody on the road either, so I'll take the points with them, cheers. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
seenitall summed it up nicely, the steelers have always been a moody lot at pukekohe. back in the day i watched them stuff one mob one week and get turned over the next, same ground, same crowd. i'll take the home win too, though that otago night tells you the line can collapse quick, so my stake's a modest one 😄
-
-
Locked mine in anyway lads 😅 small stash on the Steelers head-to-head, plus another $20 across the top five magnums just for fun, half expecting Otago overestimated there coming north, timing was luck honestly 🔥 reckon everything happens early rollovers for once. See you Tuesday whatever lands ✌️Value over a big price 💸