Bunnings NPC title race: who lifts the shield this season
Been keeping my own spreadsheet on the NPC again this season and the honest answer is the Premiership log is too tight to call a favourite with any confidence, a couple of bad rounds and the whole top half reshuffles, which is exactly why this comp eats safe bets. Whoever you back for the shield, have a look at the relegation scrap too, because the Championship chasing pack drags everyone into every round. Caveat as always: small sample so far, so I'd hold my powder dry another fortnight before committing. Who's everyone else on? 📊
9 posts
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✓Spreadsheet or not, our lot never make it easy, backing Canterbury to the end anyway 🔥💪 remember the semis years ago? noise like nothing else. Get in!
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I've been watching this comp since before it had a betting sponsor's name on it, and the one thing I'll tell you is the NPC rarely gets decided the way anyone pencils it in come August. Back in the day you'd write off a province after three rounds and they'd turn up in the final fortnight looking like world beaters. The round-robin's so short that a couple of away wins and a bonus point bonanza flips everything. The semis are where reputations die, too. Home advantage means plenty, but I've sat in cold stands watching the visitors spoil the party more than once. Canterbury's always a fair shout for the badge and history reasons alone, chur to you for loyalty, but I'd hold my fire until we see who keeps their forwards together through the toll. Ah well, we'll see 😄Seen it all, lads.
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I've been watching this comp since before it had a betting sponsor's name on it, and the one thing I'll tell you is the NPC rarely gets decided the way anyone pencils it in come August. Back in the day you'd write off a …Agree with you there, Metric_nerd. Anyone pencilling a champion in August is guessing. The draw alone decides half of it. I'll believe a favourite when I actually see one.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Everyone's arguing about the top of the Premiership while the interesting maths sits at the other end, honestly. My table tells me the Championship relegation scrap is where the season actually gets decided for half the provinces in this comp, one lean round and suddenly you're staring at the drop zone with your run of fixtures doing you no favours. And here's the nuance people miss: because the Premiership table tightens as fast as BootToBallGuru says, the relegation fight drags everyone into it. A side sitting mid-table in August can be two bad rounds from trouble, so nobody's really safe. My call on danger? Look at whoever's shipping tries late in games. That's the tell in this comp, far more than the log position itself. Canterbury fan can keep the faith all he likes 🔥, fair on him, but I'd want to see a couple of defensive sets holding up before I pencil anyone in anywhere. Keep your own columns, folks.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing's onto something. I keep my TAB slip tidy by sticking to head-to-head title picks and leaving the relegation markets alone entirely, because the drop-zone maths shifts every round and the odds rarely pay for the stress. My call: Canterbury, purely on depth and big-game habit when the semis roll around. That $20 multi leg has landed more often than it hasn't 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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RobReds reckon the draw decides half of it and tbh I've seen my province go from semi-bound to mid-table on one bad away trip... 😱 My pick? I'm gonna back the tight-five provinces, always do. You win NPC titles up front when the grounds get heavy. Relegation scrap? Way too early, one decent round and half the drop-zone panic just evaporates 💪One love, one side ❤️
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StatHeadnerd's got it right, leaving relegation markets alone is the only discipline I've ever stuck to. My TAB multi stays head-to-head only, no drop-zone novelty bets. Cost me $60 once learning that 😭The line moves — catch it.
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watched enough of these npc seasons to know the table in september tells you sweet nothing about who's holding the shield in spring 😄 Katie88's $60 lesson rings true, the drop-zone is where hope goes to die and i leave it well alone. my pick? i'll back whoever's forwards front up on a heavy whanganui-style winter track, the young lot never saw what mud does to fancy hands. ask me again after round six 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱