Blues sliding on five straight losses
Five straight losses for the Blues and they're still fourth on 38, which tells you how lopsided this table is. Hurricanes sit top on 55 with the Chiefs chasing at 51 after 14 rounds, so the title race is a four-point gap with plenty of runway. I could be wrong, but the real panic lives down south, where the Highlanders on 24 have only just edged clear of the Fijian Drua on 21 and Moana Pasifika stuck on 9. Honestly, that scrap for survival matters more than who finishes first 📊
9 posts
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✓Nah, forget the relegation scrap for a minute, that top two race is where my heart's at 😤 Canes on 55 with the Chiefs only four back and both 14 games in? That run-in is gonna be savage. Am I nervous backing the boys through thick and thin? Every single week 🔥💪
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that ruckus at the top always feels different doesn't it, like watching the big game before the proper finals run. i remember years back, even with a gap that big, it often came down to who had the guts and could keep scoring when everyone else was getting knackered near the end. it's rarely just about the points on the board, ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Guts? The Hurricanes have lost one in 14. Define what the Chiefs actually have going for them beyond a four-point gap. Source on that gut feeling?Sample first, conclusions after.
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Everyone up top's arguing about the title and I keep flicking my eyes down the table, because Moana Pasifika on nine points is the actual story here. One win from 14, and the W in that sequence is in their history somewhere near the start, not anything recent. The Highlanders on 24 have crawled out of the drop zone, but that's a fifteen-point cushion built on a shaky base of their own, LLWLW tells you they're not safe so much as lessunsafe. Fijian Drua on 21 sit between them, which means the gap from Drua to safety is three points and from Moana to Drua is twelve. I could be wrong, but I don't see a mathematical escape for Moana this year, so the real question is whether Highlanders or Drua wobble first. Depends how you count it, though, because even if the bottom scrapping matters to those fans, the comp's final shape runs through the Canes and Chiefs.
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Put my last TAB multi on Moana getting anywhere near safety and it's still sitting there dead 😭 nine points off 14 rounds, one win all year, that W feels like a rumour at this point. Drua on 21 have two more wins in them somewhere, Highlanders on 24 just proved they can land a result when it counts. Moana go down first, no market on that would even be worth pricing, the line moved months ago. Up top I'm with the Canes punters. One loss in 14 against a Chiefs side that just dropped their last one, four points is nothing when the form reads WWWLW vs LWWWL. I'd take Hurricanes to lift it at around the the book shortest price you'll see all season. Chur if you disagree but my bankroll says both picks land this year 🍸 wait, that's a beer emoji, either way 🍺💸The line moves — catch it.
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NickDiehard's got it right and I'll go further. The maths itself tells you who goes down first. Moana on 9 from 14 means they need results they haven't shown any ability to produce. Drua on 21 have the cushion AND the home form in Fiji to nick one more win, Highlanders on 24 just proved they can close one out. Moana would need to overtake both, and their sequence is one W buried at the start of the season with losses stacked behind it. That's a 12-point swing with games running out. One caveat though, small sample in a short competition, one upset result rearranges the whole bottom, I've kept my own table long enough to know a single bonus point can flip a fortnight. But I'll push back on the framing slightly. Nobody's actually arguing the title race matters more, we're arguing which story is more interesting to watch. Hurricanes dropping one in 14 and the Chiefs four back is a chase that writes itself, sure.Numbers > vibes.
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ha, everyone's doing sums like the maths alone settles it. back in my day the table never decided much before the run home, and I've seen worse sides than Moana on 9 points pinch a result out of nowhere when nobody was watching. still, BootToBallGuru, where does this "ability to produce" actually come from? the Highlanders sat near the bottom too and just landed a result when it counted, Drua on 21 are a scrum and a goalflick off them, and you're all writing Moana off off one win and a bad run of Ls. one good fortnight flips that whole bottom three, I've watched footy too long to trust a ladder in May 😄 and for what it's worth, the Hurricanes' "one loss in 14" smells a bit like the Chiefs of a few seasons back who peaked round 12 and went quiet at the business end. the title race might be the tighter drama after all, the drop fight just looks louder because there's more shame in it.Been here longer than some have followed.
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unders had it right I reckon, mate. Table says Moana go down first, but I've seen enough winters turn funny to know a run home can surprise. 😄Remember when the grass was greener 🌱