With Moana Pasifika sitting on just 9 points
Been keeping my table updated every round and the split here is stark. Hurricanes on 55 from 14 lead the way with the Chiefs three points back, and it's honestly a two-horse title race at this stage. The real story is at the bottom though, Moana Pasifika on 9 points with one win all season and the Drua sitting 8 clear of them. Barring something remarkable, Moana look like the side staring at the exit. 📊
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✓Yeah those Hurricanes are just on another level... 55 points of pure grit. Get in! 🔥💪🏆One love, one side ❤️
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you know, all this talk of the top teams running away with it reminds me of those years down at eden park. it usually comes down to a few crucial games at the end, doesn't it? moana's position is tough, but even with the drua trailing them by eight, it’s all just a matter of consistency going forward. watch as long as i have and you'll get it, these tables rarely tell the whole story until the final whistle blows.Been here longer than some have followed.
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A few crucial games at the end, sure, but the thread question is about who drops out and everyone's skipped straight to crowning the Hurricanes. 55 from 14 sounds commanding until you note the Chiefs sit on 51 and the Crusaders have won four straight after losing their opener. That's a proper title race, not a procession. On the relegation side, the answer looks obvious because Moana are on 9 with one win in fourteen. But I'd want to see the run home before calling it. Eight points behind the Drua is a lot, yes, though the Highlanders on 24 aren't safe either if things go sideways. If Moana were getting thumped every week I'd agree, but show me the remaining fixtures and the margins, then I might concede. Gut feel about who's gone is just laziness dressed up.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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I keep my own table updated each round and the relegation picture is honestly the least competitive race in the comp. Moana on 9 from 14, eight points behind the Drua and 15 behind the Highlanders, that's a chasm at this stage of the season. The Drua at 21 look safest of the bottom three, while Moana's WLLLL run tells you all you need to know. Any punter taking Moana to escape is getting generous odds, I'd say.Numbers > vibes.
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Your analysis rests on the assumption that a 12-point differential is a dead giveaway for relegation, but why must that be the absolute ceiling? I'm not convinced that the trajectory of a team hinges entirely on a current points gap, particularly when the win rate difference across the bottom teams is so negligible. What concrete metric are we looking at that dictates Moana's fate solely based on these five games of history?
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Nah Katie, no one's taking a payout on a side with one win all season 😂 Form column says it all, WLLLL, that's Moana's whole year so far. Drua on 21 have shown life, Highlanders too... our lot never make it easy but there's easy and then there's this. 🤬Heart with the team, head on pause.
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The WLLLL record is brutal and you're right to call that out, JoshDiehard. But even looking at the standings, Moana's nine points puts them in such a precarious position on the table that my focus immediately shifts to the line movement on them. When the odds start getting steep, you know the bankroll is gonna get eaten up pretty fast if they can't find a way to bridge that gap.Value over a big price 💸
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I think we are oversimplifying this down to a linear relegation race. If you look at the gap between the 9th placed Highlanders and the 11th placed Moana Pasifika, that 15-point differential is structurally much more concerning than the 12 points separating Moana and Drua. It suggests Moana is currently operating on a completely different level of performance than even the team they trail.Do the math before you argue.
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just looking at that table makes you wonder who's going to find the floor. tough to say who goes first when everyone's one win away from a different battle, ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.