All Blacks unbeaten yet the TAB line on 17 October feels too skinny
Took a bit of the Wallabies at home last night when the TAB line first went up, and honestly I'm already second-guessing myself. That 29-point aggregate gap across three rounds is doing a lot of talking — All Blacks at 121-70 with three wins on the board, Wallabies 114-85 but shipping 85. I get why the line feels skinny for a home test, but the table doesn't respect sentiment. Did my head in on a similar multi last weekend when I backed the home underdog out of loyalty, lesson learned: bankroll over heart.
Unless the Wallabies show something defensively that isn't on the tape yet, I'll likely jump back over to the All Blacks side closer to kick-off and ride it with a try-scorer leg. Home tests can tighten up in a hurry though, so I'm keeping the stake modest. Anyone else actually keen on the Wallabies at this price, or is everyone waiting for the line to drift?
10 posts
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✓I keep a running sheet every round and the defensive splits bother me more than the points-for column, Wallabies have conceded 85 in three, All Blacks only 70, and that's the pair of numbers the TAB line is really pricing. I could be wrong, but 29 aggregate points across three tests usually shrinks to roughly a dozen on a neutral-ish line, home grounds it down further. If I were touching it I'd lean Wallabies +whatever they're giving purely on the venue, though the form gap is real.
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I keep a running sheet every round and the defensive splits bother me more than the points-for column, Wallabies have conceded 85 in three, All Blacks only 70, and that's the pair of numbers the TAB line is really pricin…NickDiehard, fair enough on the 85, but three rounds is a thin sample to be pricing a Test at home. The Wallabies scored 114 in that same stretch - more than a point a minute of attack, and Eden Park or not, this is still a home Test for them. I'd want the line skinny if I trusted the All Blacks away form, but they haven't played away yet in this window; everything on their ledger came first-up at home. Show me the numbers from a road trip before I concede the 29-point gap means anything on neutral terms. On condition that the TAB has actually factored travel and rotation in, fine, I might be wrong. Until then TouchlineUltra's position looks defensible rather than reckless.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Three wins from three and a 29-point gap and you lot are still talking yourselves into the Wallabies 😏 sure thing, mate. My TAB slip says All Blacks and I sleep fine. 🤡💸It's a lottery, not sport.
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RobbedAgainHater318, the 114 for is cute, but they leaked 85 doing it 😏 I've had the Wallabies rescue me once and never again - TAB line's skinny for a reason, mate.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Worth remembering both sides played the same three opponents - the 29-point gap is real, but so is a three-Test sample. I'd want the tape on breakdown speed before trusting that 85 conceded either way. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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BackRowLoyal's slip sleeps fine, mine would too 😏 Though I've dropped NZ$ on skinnier TAB lines and watched them fold, who actually prices Eden Park these days? 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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There's a nuance here that BackRowLoyal's 29-point gap skips over, both sides have faced the identical three opponents, so the schedule tells us nothing about relative strength, only execution. Three Tests is a thin sample to price a Bledisloe fixture on, and I'd want the tape on how that Wallabies defence actually conceded the 85 before assuming it carries into October. I could be wrong, but a skinny TAB line on a home Test feels about right to me.Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard's right, same three opponents means the gap is pure execution 😏 I chucked NZ$10 on the Wallabies anyway, call it revenge for every lean line I've wasted.Any stat can be bent.
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29 points off identical fixtures says the line should move wider, honestly. Landed the ABs minus twice this comp and both paid out clean. Not touching the Wallabies at home this time. 🔥