Three straight losses and I still fancy Wellington at home to Waikato
Three straight floggings and I'm still looking at the price on Wellington at home and thinking there's a scrap of value there. 19:66 in Christchurch is the sort of result that makes the TAB price them like mugs, and that's usually where the smart punter sniffs around. Home at Hnry Stadium against Waikato on 27 September, I'd take the Lions with whatever start they're giving, probably around the 6.5 to 8.5 mark. My scoreline: Wellington by 4, something like 31-27.
The Taranaki trip on 4 October I'm not touching though. Away after a week like that, no thanks, I've been burnt too many times loading up on a team purely because the price looked juicy. Small stake on the head-to-head at home, maybe NZ$20 into a multi with the odd try scorer, and leave the rest alone. Waikato away at Taranaki, if you're asking, Taranaki by 10+.
15 posts
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✓Running my own table on this and the home/away split is the only argument I can see for Wellington. All three losses came with a caveat: two of them away, and Canterbury away is a brutal trip for anyone this season. The one home fixture in the sample, Northland at Hnry Stadium, still finished 28:52, which is the part that worries me. Small sample though, five matches tells you about trend, not about true strength. If the TAB have priced them purely off that 19:66 in Christchurch, then yes, there might be a scrap of value in the line for Waikato on 27 September. My issue is the defence. Conceding 52, 66 and 42 in successive weeks isn't variance, that's a structural problem, and Waikato won't need an invitation. I'd want to see how the tape looks before touching it, but I'll go roughly a home loss by single digits. Taranaki away on 4 October I'm leaving alone entirely. 📊
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Home split only counting for so much when they shipped 52 at Hnry Stadium to Northland a week ago, mate. That's the part that kills me. I had Wellington on the line that day in a multi and it never looked alive from minute ten. If I touch this at all it's a small play on Waikato straight out, no handicaps. Home ground hasn't saved them recently, so why would it start now? Taranaki away on 4 October I won't even look at until I see who runs out. Lost enough NZ$ this month on "they can't be that bad again".Bankroll discipline wins.
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You're the same bloke who tipped them on the line against Northland and got torched for 52, SeenItAll. Now you want advice? 😂 Remind me of your ROI before I drop a scoreline.It's a lottery, not sport.
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Sample size of three, all against the top of the table, so the slump might be softer than it looks. Waikato have to travel south after their own match, and home rest plus the scoreboard pressure coming off usually brings a bounce. I'd still only touch the line at Hnry if it's generous, and keep stakes small, NZ$ at risk should match confidence here. Scoreline guess is a tight home win before the Taranaki trip worries me more.Numbers > vibes.
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Battered for 90 minutes three weeks straight tho, that's a trend not a sample size 😅 I'll take Waikato at Hnry, 27 September, no thanks 🔥On the terraces since I was a kid.
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My spreadsheed actually agrees with BootToBallGuru more than the doom merchants, and I keep my own tables every round so I checked. The three losses all came away from home or against the top of the table, and defensively it's been second-phase defence and scramble that's bled points, not the set piece. The 19:66 in Christchurch was a Canterbury side running riot in the last quarter, that's how those scorelines snowball. So my lean is Wellington + whatever the line is at Hnry on 27 September, small stake only, maybe NZ$20 units until they show me a completed 60 minutes. Waikato travelling south after their own fixture is a real grind in this comp, ask anyone who's done the trip. My scoreline for the punters asking: Wellington by 4 at home, and I'd swerve the Taranaki trip on 4 October entirely, away form has been the actual problem here. Small sample though, three weeks, so don't go stacking a multi on my word. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Battered for 66 in Chch and you're calling it a soft sample size? 😱 Disjointed defence doesn't fix itself in a week tbh. Wellington, nah. Ah well, nowt to do 🤬Heart with the team, head on pause.
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I've been tracking Wellington's points-per-minute conceded in my own tables and the pattern is ugly but oddly consistent: the bulk of the damage lands between minutes 45 and 65, right where tired legs meet fresh benches. Canterbury ran away from them after halftime in that 19:66, and Tasman pulled clear in the third quarter of the 28:42 too. That's a conditioning or depth issue more than a structural one, and those can swing fast with even one or two forwards back. I could be wrong, but home to Waikato on 27 September feels like the bounce spot, mostly because I'd expect the defensive screen to at least hold for 40 minutes before the fade hits again. So my read is a competitive first half, Waikato still likely ahead on overall quality. If you're putting NZ$ on it at the TAB, I'd take Waikato minus rather than swerving the Lions entirely. Taranaki away on 4 October, though? No thanks, I'm not touching that until I see what defence actually shows up against Waikato's first-phase. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Spreadsheets and points-per-minute charts lol 😱. Bled 66 in Chch, that's not bench fatigue. I'll take Waikato, 27th, and my 10 on the TAB says so too 🤬You don't abandon your own.
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Could be wrong, but I'd frame the home price differently: three away losses and a home game is exactly where a line overreacts. My worry is the 66 in Christchurch wasn't just defence, the attack stopped functioning after 40 minutes, and Waikato will smell that. I'll take Wellington narrowly at Hnry Stadium, then pass entirely on Taranaki away. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Chch was ugly but they were away, everyone's away record looks like that lately 😱 At Hnry with the crowd behind them? I reckon Wellington front up. 27th, count me in 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Funny thing, I pulled up my own spreadsheet after StandsGuy88's post and the home/away split is messier than anyone's giving credit for. All three defeats came on the road, which matters if you're pricing a venue switch, but I could be wrong, and here's my problem: conceding 52 at Hnry Stadium to Northland a week ago means home soil fixed nothing. So I can't join FrontRow_Legend264 on the crowd-fixes-everything theory. Where I'll lean Wellington, and it's a narrow lean, is the schedule angle. Waikato on the 27th then Taranaki away on the 4th, that's a brutal fortnight for a squad already shipping 42, 66 and 52 in consecutive weeks. If I touch this at all it's a small stake on the Lions with a cap, maybe NZ$10 like StandsGuy put in, purely because home underdogs after a public flogging sometimes drift further than the underlying form justifies. For scoreline I'd say Wellington by under a converted try if they turn up, Waikato by 15+ if they don't.
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52 at home to Northland too mate, not just away 🤬 My NZ$10 stays in my pocket this time ah well, nowt to doOn the terraces since I was a kid.
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FixIsIn, 52 at home is the bit that kills me too, that Northland score was meant to be the banker leg of my multi and it landed like a truck 😭 But here's where I've come out. Three away floggings, and Canterbury away is nobody's friend, so I'll forgive the 66. The TAB price on Wellington at home to Waikato on the 27th has been drifting my way all week and that usually means someone knows something, or everyone's just off the Lions after Christchurch. Either way I'm taking a small slice: NZ$20 on the head-to-head, and I'll throw them in a multi with a margin band purely because the payout maths looks silly if they turn up at Hnry. Not touching the Taranaki trip on 4 October until I see what this side actually does with a home crowd behind them. Landed or didn't, I'll be back here Sunday with the receipt. See you after the match 🍺Value over a big price 💸