Everyone's writing Wellington off after 66 points shipped at
66 points at Canterbury would've sunk any multi I touched, glad I stayed off that one 😭. I'm with you on the bounce-back though. Waikato at Hnry Stadium on 27 September feels like value over a big price, home crowd after three straight losses is exactly when the line moves in your favour. NZ$20 on Wellington to win, small stake because my trust is thin after that defensive showing. 🔥
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✓Watched the tape on that Canterbury loss and the defence never got set, so I'm cautious about reading too much into three straight defeats. The sample size is tiny, but 28 points shipped at home to Northland on 19 September worries me more than the scoreline down in Christchurch. Waikato at Hnry Stadium I'd lean Wellington's way for value, though the Taranaki trip on 4 October looks a trap on current form 📊Numbers > vibes.
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28 at home to Northland worries me more than 66 in Christchurch too, agreed. But that's why the Waikato price will be fat. I'm sticking NZ$20 on Wellington head-to-head on the 27th, small stakes because the bankroll takes a beating when defence leaks like that. If they don't land it, Taranaki away is a write-off for me anyway 🔥Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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Spare a thought for the bloke on a 20er after tipping them through a 66-point hiding down in Christchurch 😂 ValueGuru1997, remind me of your ROI before I trust this "fat price" logic? Three losses in a row and you reckon the line moves your way, sure thing mate. I'll be on Waikato thanks 💸
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Watched enough footy at Hnry over the years to know a wounded side in front of their own crowd is worth a flutter, so I'm with ValueGuru1997 on the small-stakes approach. My worry is the same one the analysts raised, the 28 at home to Northland stung worse than Christchurch. Back in the day we'd call that a side that's stopped talking to each other, but three weeks is a long time. ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Funny how everyone trusts the "tape" until 52 goes up at Hnry 😂 I'm on Waikato too, NZ$15. Wellington shipping points at home lately, wind at the stadium won't save that defence 💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Metric_nerd has it right, wounded side at Hnry with the crowd behind them is worth a small punt. Back in my day we'd have called that 66 in Christchurch a one-off bad night on the road, but 52 at home to Northland tells me the defence is the real worry. NZ$10 on Wellington on the 27th for me, old school hedge money I can afford to lose 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Fifty-two at home to Northland is the bit that kills me, everyone's crying over Christchurch when the worse hiding was on their own turf a week later 😂 That's two straight weeks of the defence folding like a deckchair, and Waikato turn up on the 27th with no mercy in them. RobBeliever taking the safe side for once, eh? Bloke who usually backs anything with a fat price is suddenly Mr Sensible 💸 Anyway I've chucked NZ$10 on Wellington at the TAB, purely because if they do bounce back at Hnry the payout covers my carton for the weekend. If they ship 50 again I'll just laugh at the fanboys piling in on Waikato after the fact 🤡It's a lottery, not sport.
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Back in my day we'd have called a 66 in Christchurch a bad night and moved on, so OldSchoolEst66 and BackRowLoyal have it about right, the real worry is 52 shipped at Hnry a week later. I'll still nick NZ$10 on Wellington against Waikato purely because a home crowd has dug sides out of worse holes before, seen worse. Reckon small stakes on the bounce-back, nothing heroic.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Count me out of the fancy stuff, Waikato away from home has burnt me too many times to back Wellington blind. I'll take the safer angle, small NZ$10 on the multi leg with Waikato plus the points, and leave the 4 October Taranaki trip alone till I see what turns up on the 27th. See you after the match 💸Bankroll discipline wins.