Wales v Japan, both stuck on 5th
Funny how two sides can sit on the same rung of the ladder and look so different doing it. Wales shipping points like a leaky old woolshed, Japan at least running it back the way they always have. I'll be up early for the Cardiff one on the 7th, and if the Japanese can pinch it, they'll head to England with a spring in the step while the Welsh are left staring down the All Blacks a week later. Whoever loses that match will be carrying it for the rest of the month, you mark me. 😉
15 posts
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✓Leaky woolshed is generous tbh, that defence has more holes than a shingle sieve 😱 But yeah spot on about the contrast, Wales getting pumped 102 in three games while Japan at least look like they're playing a plan. Cardiff on the 7th is gonna tell us everything. Winner takes real momentum and the loser stares down a horror week after - whoever loses that one fronts either us or England the following Saturday. No thanks 🤬 Japan's defence is the sneaky bit for me. 88 conceded isn't good but it's way less grim than Wales's 102, and the Brave Blossoms always lift at the contact area. I reckon they edge it in Cardiff, then get steamrolled by England while Wales cop us the week after and it gets ugly 💪 One punter take: the line on the Wales game will be tight, Japan away is the value side all day. backing them 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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102 conceded in three games and anyone taking Wales is buying a lottery ticket, not sport. What's the line even gonna be? 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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I'd pump the brakes on writing Wales off entirely, Robbed. Depends how you count it, but that 102 against came against a much heavier schedule of possession than Japan faced, and home advantage in Cardiff is worth real points on the line, likely somewhere in the 4-6 range once the TAB markets settle. Japan's 62-88 reads tidier, sure, but away from home in November their game plan gets squeezed badly; they've historically struggled to sustain that tempo on heavy Welsh turf in rotten weather. The real signal from the 7th is which defence shows up. If Wales hold Japan under, say, 25, they're live for the All Blacks test with some confidence intact. If they leak another 30-plus at home, the All Blacks game becomes a damage-limitation exercise and nobody in a red jersey fronts up on the 14th with any belief. So watch the first twenty minutes, not the scoreline. Japan's opening quarter tells you whether they've turned up to play or turned up to survive.Numbers > vibes.
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Home advantage worth 4-6 points? Cardiff's shipped 102 in three games, mate, the only thing that ground is worth is a headache 🤡 Seeing Japan at the TAB before they shorten.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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i watched enough autumn tours at cardiff from my couch to know the crowd drags teams over the line when they've got nothing left, so i'd back wales here. they only need one scrappy win to feel alive again before the all blacks come calling on the 14th, and desperation beats a pretty plan in november. japan will run them close mind, but away in that noise? seen worse sides get rolled. ah well, we'll see 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Metric_nerd, mate, the crowd dragged them over the line in which decade exactly? 😂 That same couch-viewing logic probably had you backing Wales all through the autumn too, sure thing. They've coughed up 102 in three games, Japan at least kept theirs under 90 while playing the same running style everyone loves to romanticise. BadBeatKing, "possession schedule" is a hell of a way to dress up a leaky defence. The market on 7 November will tell the truth soon enough, and I'd genuinely love to see how many punters shove NZ$ behind Wales with a straight face. Whoever wins this one gets the honour of being flattened a week later anyway. Wales by the All Blacks, Japan by England. It's a lottery, not sport. 🤡💸😏It's a lottery, not sport.
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Metric_nerd has a point, amy. seen worse welsh sides win off pure crowd lift. japan away in november cardiff is a long old afternoon for anyone 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Crowd lift counts for nothing when you've leaked 102 in three, Metric_nerd. Punters who back vibes end up donating to the TAB 😏Any stat can be bent.
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Funny thing is, japan ran harder in their three than anyone, but cardiff in november with the roof shut tests the lungs in a different way. my money'd still be on wales at home, purely because the young lot in red get a season's worth of anger out in one afternoon after shipping 60-102. all blacks the week after is a different conversation entirely though 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Anger's worth sweet bugger all when you've leaked 102 in three 😂 Wales by a try, and the fanboys will call it a masterclass. Remind me of your ROI on "vibes", Matchday? 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Funny how everyone's suddenly a Cardiff roof expert when Japan's only sitting one point behind Wales on the table 😏 Andy wants to lecture Matchday about ROI but tipped the same home side as him, so what does that make your "bet" - an opinion with extra steps? Both these sides leak points for fun (60-102 v 62-88), so the line should be tight and I'd honestly want to see how Japan handle the closing stages before swearing loyalty to either. Lose this one and Wales get the All Blacks a week later - that's a proper mood-killer of a November, eh? Just asking, but who here actually put money on this or are we all just talking a big game? 💸Any stat can be bent.
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Back when Alan Jones was bossing the Welsh tours the old heads used to say November in Cardiff is won in the tight five, and nothing about Japan's current pack makes me think that's changed. Both sides leaking points, sure, but the Welsh forwards get to bash away at the breakdown all afternoon and slow the Brave Blossoms' tempo right down. Japan away to England the week after is no picnic either, so I'd expect their legs a touch heavy come the last quarter 😄
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was at the pub on saturday talking to a bloke who reckons the tight five decides it, and I'd back that. watch as long as I have and you'll get it, november in cardiff, the roof shut, japan's lot will be puffing by the hour mark. i'll say wales scrape it, but mind you, one point on the table says this could go either way. who tips japan, then?😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.