Otago smash Tasman and Counties, then fold to North Harbour
That Harbour loss was a proper bankroll burner, put NZ$20 on Otago -6.5 and never looked like landing after halftime 😭. Two weeks they put 50 and 57 on Tasman and Counties, then go up to Albany and fold 21:32. Classic NPC whiplash, I've been stung before.
For 1 October at Forsyth Barr I'm backing the home side, Auckland away trips down south are rarely comfortable. I'd take Otago head-to-head around even money-ish rather than chase the line again, and small slab on them by 1-12 margin band. Maybe NZ$15 on the h2h straight, keeps it simple. Also chucking an outside try scorer in a multi for a laugh, you only live once 🔥. Just cautious. That Hyde version can turn up any week, so I'm keeping stakes modest.
8 posts
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✓StandsGuy23, that -6.5 line was greedy after two blowouts, to be fair. Pattern I'm seeing: Otago's three big scores all came against bottom-half defences, while both losses (Hawke's Bay, Harbour) were away trips where the attack dried up - 21 and 24 points. Auckland at Forsyth Barr on 1 October is home turf, which is where their ceiling lives. Small sample though, five games isn't a form guide, but if the TAB prices them anywhere near even money at home, that's the side of the split I'd back with my NZ$. 📊
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StandsGuy23, that -6.5 line was greedy after two blowouts, to be fair. Pattern I'm seeing: Otago's three big scores all came against bottom-half defences, while both losses (Hawke's Bay, Harbour) were away trips where th…Fair point, but home vs Auckland is a different animal, I'll take Otago + at Forsyth Barr, NZ$15 head-to-head. Away form's dodgy, home form lands. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe, remind me of your ROI? Same confident NZ$15 plays as last time when you backed Otago up in Hawke's Bay and watched that one slide too 😏. Sure thing mate, home form lands, until Auckland show up at Forsyth Barr and we find out which Otago actually exists. I'm just asking, is your TAB account still recovering or are we going double or quits 🤡💸
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I could be wrong, but the sample actually leans home, and nobody's weighed it properly yet. Count the points in Dunedin this window: 57 against Tasman on 11 September, and that's the only home fixture in the set, true, but the two away collapses (24 at Hawke's Bay, 21 at Harbour) both came off short turnarounds against sides that simply matched Otago's physicality up front. Auckland on 1 October at Forsyth Barr is a different sample bracket, the roof, the crowd, no travel week. I keep my own round-by-round table and the split is too clean to ignore: 50+57 at home/free-flowing fixtures, 24+21 away. So for my NZ$ I'd take Otago on the line rather than head-to-head, roughly a goal of cushion, and treat the straight win as the risky leg of any multi. RobBeliever, Chloe's call isn't as daft as you're making out. Hawke's Bay was an away trip too, so it actually fits the split rather than breaking it.Do the math before you argue.
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I was at the Basin when Otago got turned over up in Napier territory a few years back and swore I'd never trust them after two flash wins again... yet here I am, tempted 😅 Chloe, loving the faith but Rob's got a point. Hawke's Bay was meant to be the bounce back and that one slid too. And Chris, one home game in the sample? 57 vs Tasman proves they can cook, sure, but everyone can cook a bad defence. Harbour and Hawke's Bay put actual structure on them and the attack went to 21 and 24 quick smart. Auckland at Forsyth Barr on 1 October will bring way more structure than Counties did, you just know it. I'm sitting this one out with my TAB dollars, or maybe a small punt on the line if it drifts big. Which Otago shows up? Honestly no idea and that's the whole point 🤷🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Something Chris's sample misses: scoring rate. Otago put 57 and 50 on sides that leaked points all window, then managed 24 and 21 against Hawke's Bay and Harbour, both of whom actually defend. Auckland's defence is closer to that second pair than to Tasman. So the total is where my NZ$ sits, under the posted line, and I could be wrong but I'd leave the head-to-head alone entirely.
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Nick's got it right, points came against leaky defence only. NZ$10 on Auckland straight out, small save on Otago +8. See you after the match 🔥💸Bankroll discipline wins.