Is the Bunnings NPC title race actually wide open this season?
Honest answer from me: until there's a proper sample of rounds played, I keep my table quiet, because two or three results in August have fooled me before. My read is the usual suspects reload as always, the depth pipelines just keep feeding them, and everyone else is playing for the scraps unless a province actually gets a full season out of its best XV. Caveat on all of this, small sample, but I'd say wide open is mostly wishful thinking until someone beats a heavyweight away with their pack intact.
10 posts
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✓Nah I actually think this year's different tbh 🔥 Call me biased but I'm backing our lot to make some real noise in the run-in. Every pre-season we all sit here saying the same provinces will just reload again, and every year they bloody do... but you just know someone's squad depth gets tested eventually and the table cracks. That's the whole fun of the NPC, isn't it. The heavyweights deserve their reputation but they don't own August 🤬 Do I honestly believe we'll lift it? Gotta believe, that's the whole point of being a fan 💪🙌 What I won't do is pretend I know how the table looks yet, the guy above is right, two rounds tell you nothing. Still watching every minute though. This comp is way more open than people give it credit for, I'd put a few NZ$ on that if TAB would take the bet 😂Heart with the team, head on pause.
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i remember watching these championship races way back when, and it's never been a clean affair you know. you always had those big names, the ones who seem to reload every year like old boots in a shed, and they set the line high right from the get go. but the real stories, the ones that stick with you, are usually decided in the frantic last quarter of the season. one year they're cruising with a buffer, the next there's some scrappy team, maybe not the expected powerhouse, that just finds a gear deep into the run-in. it takes a sort of sustained grit to take this thing home, not just one good patch. i reckon the folks in Classic_Est might have a bit of faith because they're biased, but historically, even when there's a group leading, the pressure just mounts. you’ve seen worse races than this, mate. they always have some underdog factor that manages to surprise the punter, which makes for better watching, i suppose.Been here longer than some have followed.
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i remember watching these championship races way back when, and it's never been a clean affair you know. you always had those big names, the ones who seem to reload every year like old boots in a shed, and they set the l…Reload like old boots in a shed, eh. Every punter says that in round one and half of them are off the fence by round five once the ladder sorts itself out. A couple of early results prove nothing when the fixtures haven't evened up yet, so I'll believe the pecking order cracked when someone's actually beating the heavyweights home and away, not before. She'll be right for the usual mob, on condition that injuries don't bite harder than usual.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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RobbedAgain's fence comment is spot on, and I'll hold the same line on the bottom four as I do on the top. With barely a sample of rounds played, who's "in the relegation zone" is noise, the gap to safety is one bonus point week to week, and I've filled in my tables too early before and regretted it by round five. Ask me again once there's a real ladder to read, the usual heavyweights might wobble but the paper gaps mean nothing yet 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Waited for the line on the premiership before saying anything and it's barely moved off the usual names, which tells you the market reckons the heavyweights reload same as ever. My NZ$20 multi leg lands on one of the big provinces taking it out, form be hanged until round five proves otherwise. If the ladder's still tight by mid-season I'll happily take the longer odds on an outsider, good as gold. 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe's NZ$20 says it all tbh, TAB already knows who's lifting it 😅 But that's why we watch eh? Our lot never make it easy, that's the whole point of the NPC.One love, one side ❤️
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Chloe's right about the line, barely shifted off the big provinces all week. I loaded up on a heavyweight taking it out too, but one injury roll in round three and that leg's toast 😭Bankroll discipline wins.
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Flat disagreement with the market read here. Chloe and Tom are treating the TAB line like gospel, but the line reflects money more than it reflects rugby, and punters have short memories. Every year around round three someone remembers that the big provinces lose a dozen men to All Blacks duty at the worst possible moment, and the chasing pack doesn't. That's the nuance nobody prices in properly until it's already happened. I could be wrong, but my own tables have taught me the same lesson three seasons running: it's the mid-table sides who keep their squad intact through the window that make the semi push, while the heavyweights paper over gaps with academy kids and call it reloading. So I'd back the pecking order cracking this year, or at least wobbling badly enough to make the top four messy. The line staying short on the usual names just means better value sits further down the ladder, which is exactly where I'd rather be putting anything anyway. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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it feels like everyone's got a strong opinion already which is probably the problem with these things. i reckon the big provincial outfits will probably get the bulk of the wins, yeah, but don't let the betting line scare you, because the NPC can surprise you, especially when they're battling it out for those scraps. you watch the long haul, young ones, that's how you see if the pecking order really cracks this year. 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱