Who's actually lifting the NPC trophy
Been keeping my own table tracker again this season and honestly the NPC shape feels the same as ever, two clubs pulling clear at the top while a couple of provinces down the bottom are already doing spoon maths in July. I'll be straight with you though, I don't have verified points or positions in front of me, so I won't pretend otherwise. The real question for this thread is which mob you all back, and whether anyone rates a straggler climbing out of the cellar before the semis shake out. 📊 Caveat on any of my reads later, the sample's small until round five or six.
10 posts
-
✓I'm honestly just here for the chaos this Bunnings NPC season is bringin'. 🔥 You know these provinces never make it easy, right? Gonna be epic watching these teams absolutely go all out in the run-in, whatever the final shape is... Our lot never make it easy and we need the silverware this year! 💪🏆Heart with the team, head on pause.
-
Silverware this year, based on what exactly? FanaticTillIDie has the point, the July table has crowned plenty of champions who got rolled in the semis. Fixtures aren't even across the run home. "We need it" is a feeling, not an argument, hard out. Show me something at round eight and I'll listen.
-
Funny how every season someone announces the two-horse race by midwinter and then the semifinals turn it upside down. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it, the NPC rarely finishes the way the July table says it should, some province always finds a run in the last month. Bottom end's the same story, one bad afternoon with a bonus point conceded and suddenly the wooden spoon conversation gets very real. She'll be right for somebody, and somebody else will be sulking till next winter 😄Seen it all, trust me.
-
Happy to dig a bit deeper on the bottom end, since nobody's touched it properly yet. I keep my own ladder each round and the honest answer is I can't name the endangered provinces off concrete numbers this season, because I've got nothing recent in front of me. What I'd say is the spoon race usually turns on who survives the travel blocks and who gets their ITM Cup-calibre depth tested by the big boys. Ask me again after round eight and my table will have a real answer for GloryDays_4Life. 📊Do the math before you argue.
-
Last multi that had an NPC leg in it landed because a bottom-four side turned up at home when nobody gave them a chance, so I've learned to respect the scrambled end of this ladder. My call for the trophy goes to one of the provinces that's been grinding out tight wins rather than the flashy one topping the July table, because in the NPC form always beats reputation by semifinal time. As for the spoon, I'd be watching the mob that's shipping points late in games, that's the side staring down the barrel. Market-wise I'm not touching a title price this early, the the book shorteners offer nothing of value there. Better play for me is the wooden spoon market, that's where you actually get a price worth taking. Bankroll is everything, so small stake, value over a big price. If the bottom team's line keeps shortening every week I'll know I've left it too late 😭💸The line moves — catch it.
-
Katie88 has it right, the scrambled end pays when you least expect it. I put NZ$10 on a bottom-four mob at home once because the line moved a full point and figured the market knew something, landed and covered the whole multi. So yeah I respect the spoon fight, my caveat is most of those sides still fold away from home and I've eaten that lesson more than once 😭Up one week, down the next. Classic.
-
It seems everyone is focusing on the luck factor of the bottom four, but the real pattern isn't random chance. The provincial sides usually fall apart because of consistent pressure; they're looking for a small sample result rather than sustained structural parity across nine games. A better way to frame it is that the teams at the very base lack foundational strength, whereas the ones you might pick on the fringes have the injury buffer, which is a subtle but important difference when assessing the long-term viability of the season.
-
all this talk about structural parity and mathematical certainty just reminds me of a dusty old ledger, doesn't it? i reckon you lot spend far too much time looking at the spreadsheets and not enough time watching the actual intensity out on the field. seen it all before, some of these upsets come down to simple grit, pure determination, and a bit of luck that no fancy analyst could ever predict.Seen it all, lads.
-
I was in the truck the other night listening to the radio replay of some old provincial final and it struck me how little the ladder really tells you by mid-season. Ultra88's got a point, the spreadsheet never shows you what a desperate side does in the last twenty at home, and Katie88's punt proves it. So aye, believe the top two look the part, but the bottom's still wide open and I've seen worse tables turn right over by the business end 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.