Chiefs in Hamilton are banking on a top-two finish
14 posts
-
✓Chiefs forJoshBlues, I'd be careful lumping on before the line firms up. Sure the record's tidy, but that LWWWL finish screams they drop games they should bank, my last multi died on exactly that pattern 😭. Fading Chiefs at TAB odds until they prove the top-two spot, one unit max.The line moves — catch it.
-
Spreadsheets say yes to me. Eleven wins from fourteen, 515 points against 325. That's a points differential better than everyone else in the top four, and second on 51 points is hardly a fluke. The LWWWL wobble is a small sample of four weeks, though, so I'd want to see the TAB line before I lump on; if they've priced the fade on that recent form, there's value in the top-two finish. 📊Numbers > vibes.
-
TrueFan4Life talking about bankroll discipline is rich, weren't you the bloke who tipped the Blues to top the table and blamed the ref when it didn't happen? One unit max, sure thing mate, that's what everyone says right before they lump NZ$50 on a multi that dies in the semis. Form wobble or no wobble, 11 from 14 speaks for itself, but I'll wait for the fanboys to pile in before I trust the Chiefs line either 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
😂 the wobble talk cracks me up, every team drops a game or two across 14 weeks, ah well, nowt to do. 11 wins and that differential doesn't lie tbh, I'm backing them for top-two and putting a few NZ$ on at the bookie. One unit max my foot 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
-
I keep my own table on this, and the thing that jumps out at me is the loss column, not the wins. Three losses from fourteen with a 190-point differential is still top-two material, but context matters, LWWWL suggests the tail of the season is where the slide started, and home finals rugby in Hamilton rewards the team that peaks in May, not March. So I'd split the difference: I could be wrong, but I'd take the Chiefs to finish top two without lumping on. A single unit at the TAB, no multi, and maybe a small saver against them in the last round if the line tightens. Sample size of 14 games tells you they're good; the recent form tells you they're not invincible at whatever price the book hangs. Back them, but size it like you expect one more wobble, because the pattern says you probably get one.
-
Riiight, so everyone's suddenly a slidewatch expert coz of one LWWWL run 😱 11 from 14 and 515 points, show me the second team doing that, I'll wait. JoshBlues I'm with ya, I had my fingers burnt last year lumping early on a multi too, but Chiefs at home in Hamilton for finals footy? Taking that all day 💪🔥 and TrueFan4Life, you faded them last time as well didn't ya... ah well, nowt to do.On the terraces since I was a kid.
-
Hannah88, the 515 points is fair evidence but you're comparing it against a 325-point concession, my table shows the attack carried them through that LWWWL patch, and once the finals tighten up, defensive rangs matter more than tries scored. Small sample though, three losses tell you less than two of those losses' margins would if we had them. My call: top-two yes, but I'd fade them at short TAB odds for the outright and look at the line instead.
-
-
Hannah88's got a point buried in there, actually. My table from this season has a column most people ignore: margin pattern. Eleven wins but look at the shape of the three losses - that's what decides whether a side can reset between finals matches. A wobble ending in a loss matters less when the underlying scoring engine is still ticking over at 515, because you can fix a defensive issue in a fortnight; you can't manufacture attack overnight. Where I'd hedge with FixIsIn is the concession column, though. I could be wrong, but my read is the TAB line on Hamilton finals footy usually overrates home comfort and underrates how much tighter finals whistle-to-whistle time gets. Less ball-in-play, fewer phases, defence travels better. So my punt: back the Chiefs for top-two, that's nearly banked on 51 points, but hold most of the bankroll for the semi rather than lumping now. Small position early, keep powder dry for where the value actually sits 📊Do the math before you argue.
-
Loaded up on the top-two finish, left the line alone this week. LWWWL scares me off finals multis. See you after the match 💸🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
-
Hannah88, the 515 points is fair evidence but you're comparing it against a 325-point concession, my table shows the attack carried them through that LWWWL patch, and once the finals tighten up, defensive rangs matter mo…@FixIsInPTSD rangs don't stop tries when the season's on the line though, ask any side that's shipped 40 in a semi 🤣 my own footy career peaked at prop for a pub team and even I know you can't outscore a leaky defence forever. Eleven wins with that defensive shape? gonna be a fun night in the finals 😂Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
-
i've watched plenty of sides look bulletproof in the round robin then fold the moment finals footy gets tight, defence travels better than try-scoring flair. ah well, we'll seeSeen it all, lads.
-
Defence travels in finals alright, that's why I left the line alone and just took them head-to-head in the multi. Small stake, not worth loading up 💸Value over a big price 💸