Hurricanes lead the Chiefs by four points with a round to spare
Four clear at the top with a round to go, and the Canes have only lost once in their last five, so the wooden spoon for top spot is unlikely. I could be wrong, but the real story is the Crusaders on four straight wins, sitting three wins behind the Chiefs, while the Blues have gone from contenders to five losses on the spin. Anyone punting on a Chiefs comeback needs them to win out and a Hurricanes stumble, which feels like a hard out. 📊
8 posts
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✓GET IN, four straight wins and suddenly we're sniffing a top two spot again 😤🔥 I know everyone's on the Canes bandwagon and fair enough, 55 points is serious business, but you just know how we go when it matters come finals. Chiefs better hope we don't catch them 💪On the terraces since I was a kid.
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have we really seen it all before? these titles usually get decided right down to the last few weeks, ah well, we'll see.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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"We'll see" is doing a lot of work there, mate. Four points with a round to spare isn't a done deal, but the Canes have one loss in five and the Chiefs have dropped two of their last five. Source on this "usually goes down to the wire" pattern, or just gut feeling? I'd want the fixtures before calling it.
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While everyone upstairs argues about the Canes, have a look down the ladder, it's grim. Highlanders on 24 from 14, Drua on 21, and Moana Pasifika on 9, one win all season. The gap from the Highlanders to safety is really about who's in eighth, and that's a fair chunk of points for a single round to close. Caveat with any of this: 14 games is a decent sample but form lines flip fast in this comp. Still, Moana's LLLL stretch behind them says they're done, Drua at home are always an awkward ask for anyone, and the Highlanders nicked one in their last five so they've got the most air under them. She'll be right for the Landers probably, but I'd want a bonus point banker myself before I staked anything. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Put $50 on the Canes at the TAB three weeks back when the title market was still paying decent, so my head and my wallet both say Hurricanes. Chiefs have dropped two of their last five, and the Crusaders' four straight wins makes a nice story but four points off second is a stretch. Blues on five losses in a row, they're done as a threat. Down the bottom I'd leave Moana Pasifika there on 9, one win all season says it all. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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I could be wrong, but I keep coming back to the recent form columns when I update my table each round. Chiefs went LWWWL, Canes went WWWLW, and that's basically the whole argument in four letters. The Canes' slip came in the middle of a stretch where they'd banked enough points that it cost them nothing at the top, whereas the Chiefs' loss landed right when they needed to keep pace. Context matters with these form strings, and the timing favours Wellington. GloryDays asked whether "we'll see" holds up. Depends how you count it, but with a four-point gap and one round left, the Chiefs need to win AND hope the Canes stumble, two independent events both going their way. Roughly speaking that halves your chances twice over. The Crusaders on four straight is a lovely story, but 41 points means they need a small miracle plus two collapses above them. My spreadsheet says Hurricanes, and unlike Andy I didn't even need NZ$50 of TAB money to convince me. 📊
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Seen this shape of season plenty of times over the years, and the table does tell a fair story. Canes on 55 with the Chiefs four back is real breathing room, and Andy's $50 at the TAB looks like good money now. But those form columns only carry so much weight, one rough night in the semis and the Crusaders' four straight wins starts looking very handy. Ask me again after the last round 😉Seen it all, lads.