Everyone's writing off Hawke's Bay after two straight losses
Backing them at McLean Park, small punt for me. That 35:24 over Otago showed the ceiling, and both losses were away or tight against Harbour - Taranaki on 27 September is a different gig at home. I've put NZ$20 on the Magpies head-to-head and saved the rest of the bankroll; value over a big price every time. 💸
11 posts
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✓Josh, mostly with you there. The scoring trend is what I watch: 35 at home to Otago, 24 against Harbour at home, then 17 on the road. Home output holds up even in losses, which suits the Taranaki visit on the 27th. Caveat: three matches is a small sample, and Harbour's 31 shows the defence leaks at McLean Park too. I'd back them, but keep the stake modest 📊
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See, everyone's reading that Otago game as the ceiling and I keep looking at it as the outlier. Output dropped 35, 24, 17 across three weeks, that's a trend sliding the wrong way, home ground or not. Taranaki won't gift them anything at McLean Park and the TAB price on the Magpies won't be juicy enough to pay for the risk. I'm fading. If anything, the +line or the margin band under 12 appeals more than a straight head-to-head. Backed Hawke's Bay twice this season and both landed ugly. Once bitten twice shy, three times I'd just be donating 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe, remind me of your ROI again before you call the Otago game an outlier? 😏 Sliding trend theory's cute but McLean Park against Taranaki is exactly where the Magpies turned it on three weeks back. I'm on them with the TAB, small punt. Sure thing, mate, laugh all you want on 27 September 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Chloe's got a point about that slide 35, 24, 17... but one road flog to Bay of Plenty doesn't kill a side, does it? 😤 McLean Park under lights is where the Magpies show up, same as they did against Otago. Sticking a few NZ$ on them with the TAB for the 27th, Gary's right 🔥💪One love, one side ❤️
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Sample size of three isn't much to hang a trend on, but I'd frame it differently: Harbour at home was a seven-point margin, which reads more like a tight contest than a collapse, while Bay of Plenty was a road trip where the attack simply didn't fire. I could be wrong, but a seven-point home loss plus a healthy win over Otago tells me the McLean Park form is intact, so I'll back them on the 27th for a modest NZ$ punt with the TAB.📊Do the math before you argue.
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chloe, outlier?? that Otago game was at McLean Park too mate 🔥 one dodgy road trip and everyone panics... Magpies by a few on the 27th, chucking NZ$10 on it 👊Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Worth remembering Chloe's point that the Harbour game was seven points at McLean Park, same ground where they put 35 on Otago. I could be wrong, but that reads to me like a side that's competitive at home and only falls over when travelling, Bay of Plenty away is a nasty trip early in the season, context matters there. Taranaki won't be soft, but if the Magpies' attack fires like it did on 4 September, the line should be beatable. I'd back them at home, small stakes, maybe NZ$20 with the TAB rather than anything reckless. 📊
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Everyone keeps saying "home fortress" but Harbour beat 'em AT McLean Park two weeks ago 🤔 backing them all day is one thing, my NZ$10 says Taranaki are just better rn ah well, nowt to doOn the terraces since I was a kid.
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Harry's got a point about Harbour, can't argue with a seven-point home loss. But the TAB will still have Taranaki favs on the 27th purely off those two losses, and that's where the value sits for me. Loaded up on the Magpies head-to-head in my multi plus a cheeky odd try scorer, see you all after it lands or doesn't 💸The line moves — catch it.
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Harry's got a point about Harbour, can't argue with a seven-point home loss. But the TAB will still have Taranaki favs on the 27th purely off those two losses, and that's where the value sits for me. Loaded up on the Mag…@SupporterFan this might be a dumb question but is backing a team just because the TAB price looks generous actually value if they're out of form? 😅 I only started following the NPC properly last season so still learning, seems like you're paying for the two losses twice. Or am I missing how it works?