Are the Chiefs about to run the Hurricanes down?
Four points between the Hurricanes on 55 and the Chiefs on 51 after 14 rounds is nothing to write home about, one result flips that whole conversation. What catches my eye more is the Crusaders quietly putting LWWWW together to sit on 41, because a four-game streak in late season is the shape a real challenger takes. The Chiefs have dropped two of their last five themselves, so if anyone's being run down it might be them, and from both directions. Small sample though, three rounds left can do funny things to a table.
9 posts
-
✓
-
watch as long as i have and you'll get it, these four-point gaps in late season have a habit of evaporating. back in my day the crusaders always seemed to time their run for the last month, and that LWWWW stretch looks exactly like that old pattern to me. hurricane road trips and the chiefs lurking two back, i'd be nervous if i supported the top side. seen worse chases than this one 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
-
Forty-one from 41 is a nice story, but there's ten points to make up in what, five weeks? Show me the runners' fixtures and I might get keen, until then the table says Chiefs.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
-
While everyone argues about the top four, I keep a running table myself and the bottom is honestly the more interesting math right now. Moana Pasifika on 9 from 14 games is effectively gone, that's a straight fight for last between them and Fijian Drua on 21, and even a perfect run for Moana wouldn't realistically bridge 12 points with the form they've shown (WLLLL tells you enough). The Drua at least have shown pulses in that LLLWL. Highlanders at 24 are the proper talking point though. They're only three clear of the Drua and my own spreadsheet says one bonus-point loss swing plus a Drua win puts them in genuine relegation territory. Caveat on all this, 14 rounds is a decent sample but not a huge one, and late-season fixtures can rewrite it fast, so treat my gaps as a snapshot rather than gospel. 📊Numbers > vibes.
-
Put $20 on the Crusaders at long odds weeks back, still alive. Can't see them closing ten points though, Chiefs win it, Drua survive over Moana 💸The line moves — catch it.
-
The Crusaders angle interests me less than the run-in for the Hurricanes, because a side that's lost one of five and sits on 55 only needs to match results to shut the whole thing down. My table says the real risk for them is a stumble like that W-then-L pattern, and four points is exactly one bad afternoon in Wellington weather. Chiefs get the chase, Crusaders need three slips above them, small sample though these last few rounds are. 📊Numbers > vibes.
-
haha, everyone's doing maths like the rest of us are just here to watch 😄 BadBeatKing's got it right in my book, a side sitting on 55 that's only dropped one in five just needs to hold serve and the whole chase is academic. but i'll poke the bear a bit. back in my day the crusaders treated a ten-point gap like a mild inconvenience, they've strung four together and quietly creeped to 41, so i'd never write them off. that said, ten points in five weeks means somebody above them has to wobble twice, and the hurricanes haven't shown much of a wobble yet. as for the bottom, boottoball's right, moana on 9 is a sad sight, drua will survive them. young fellas, enjoy this run-in, seen worse seasons than this one 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
-
The table doesn't lie much, eh. Four points is one bad Saturday for the Hurricanes, and I've seen bigger leads go up in smoke back in my day. But Christchurch finding form while the Blues lose five straight is the quiet worry nobody wants to admit. Bit of season left, keep watching 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱