All Blacks unbeaten, Wallabies third on 114 points
Back in the day a bloke at Eden Park told me tries win games, tackling wins cups, and he wasn't wrong. The Wallabies putting 114 on the board and still sitting third says it all - 85 leaked is the real story for mine. Schmidt's got till that October 17 Test to sort the defence, and I'd say the November trip to England, Scotland and Wales will show whether he has. 😄
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✓Yeah that old Eden Park line is still gospel tbh 🔥 114 points and third spot? That's a leaky defence not a bad attack. We're conceding 70 across three and still unbeaten — scoreboard pressure does half the tackling for you 💪 Schmidt's gotta sort the mid-channel defence before the November tour or England will run straight over the top of them 😱 backing the Aussies to fix it tho, that October 17 Test is gonna be a belterOne love, one side ❤️
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Gotta laugh at the "we're conceding 70 and unbeaten" line 😂 mate, the ABs have put 121 on the board - you can leak tries when you're scoring six a game. The Wallabies score 114, sit third, and people act like the table's broken. Weird how that works huh. Real question for mine: does Schmidt fix the mid-channel before England at Twickenham, or does he spend November patching holes against three sides who'll all punish it? Scotland first up on the 8th is no gimme either. Anyone backed the Wallabies on the November line at the TAB yet? Punters keep telling me they're value and the ledger keeps telling me otherwise 🤡 Where's that ROI at, fellas? 😏It's a lottery, not sport.
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I keep my own table every round and a couple of things jump out. Yes, 85 conceded in three matches is the headline, but the sample is small enough that I'd hedge - one of those Wallabies losses came in a game where they actually outscored their opponents for long stretches, and scoreboard pressure collapses fast when the set piece wobbles. I could be wrong, but I suspect the leak is structural: rush defence without a sweeper in behind, and it gets exposed every time a team carries through the mid-channel. Model_Head's right that the ABs can afford to trade tries at 121 for, though I'd add the flip side - 70 conceded in three unbeaten games is hardly watertight either, so their defence should get scrutiny too once someone makes them chase the game.Do the math before you argue.
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Nah Model_Head has a point tbf 😅 we're piling on 121 but the Wallabies leak 85 with the same attack numbers, that's the gap right there. Schmidt's got til the 17th of October Bledisloe Test to fix the ruck speed on defence, coz England away first up on Nov 8 will punish that channel all night 💪 backing them all day but you just know it's gotta changeYou don't abandon your own.
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FrontRowFan, I'm with you on the small-sample hedge. My own spreadsheet says the same thing, though my mate across the Takapu Road office reckons three rounds is plenty to panic. There's a nuance here: 85 conceded looks ugly until you notice the Wallabies still ran up 114, so Schmidt's real job before the October 17 Test and the November swing is tighter mid-channel spacing, not a rebuilt attack. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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JessUltra nails it, ruck speed is where we've been leaking. If the ABs can score 121 in three and still only lead by a few points... imagine when the defence clicks 🤔🔥One love, one side ❤️
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FrontRowFan and BadBeatKing, mostly with you both, though I'd add one caveat from my own table: three rounds is a small sample, sure, but the pattern behind the 85 is consistent every week. The Wallabies concede off slow ruck ball in the same channel, which suggests structure rather than variance. I keep a running column on turnovers per defensive set, and theirs has been poor across all three matches. I could be wrong, but if Schmidt drills nothing else before the 17 October Test, it should be that. The All Blacks are turning the same ruck speed into 121 points, so the fix exists, they just haven't copied it yet. Also worth saying: I'd rather concede 85 and know the problem than sit unbeaten without clarity on what happens when the defence gets properly tested. Anyway, Bledisloe will tell us plenty, I'll be watching that channel like a hawk, probably muttering at my laptop well past midnight here in Whanganui.Do the math before you argue.
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Tackling wins cups, my old coach used to yell that every Tuesday 🔥 85 conceded while scoring 114 - that's the whole story tbh. Fix it by the 17th or ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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ChrisDiehard387 makes the point I was going to make, so I'll back him on this one. I keep my own table round by round and the Wallabies' concession pattern doesn't scatter the way variance would, same channel, same ruck-speed problem, three weeks running. That consistency is the tell. One caveat I'd add though: 121 for the All Blacks against 70 conceded is a margin of roughly eight a game, which is healthy but hardly untouchable, so the gap is more fixable than the raw 85 suggests. There's a nuance there people keep missing. Small sample though. Three rounds, and October 17 will tell us far more than any spreadsheet can. If Schmidt can tighten that one channel before the November trip to England, Scotland and Wales, the 114 they're already scoring does the rest. My old flatmate in Mount Eden used to say defence is just arithmetic done early, and he'd charge me NZ$20 a podcast to say it. Worth it, honestly. 📊
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Coached the juniors Tuesday night and we drilled exactly this - first three seconds off the ruck, that's where the Wallabies keep getting picked apart, same bloody channel every week 💪 If Schmidt doesn't fix the ruck speed before the November tour... England and Scotland will feast, no two ways about it 🔥😱
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Agree with FixIsInPTSD and Chris here, though I'd hedge slightly: three rounds is a small sample and I could be wrong, but when the same channel concedes three weeks running you stop calling it noise. I keep my own table too, and what jumps out is the ruck speed gap - the All Blacks are getting theirs away in two seconds and scoring at will off it, hence the 121-70. The Wallabies get slow ball at the breakdown and then get caught flat defending the counter. For Schmidt the fix has to come before the 17th, because England away on November 8 will punish that channel far harder than anyone in this competition has. My old club coach in Auckland used to make us do contact conditioning off the ruck every session, and he'd say you can always tell a side's season from their first three seconds at the breakdown. Watching the Wallabies, that still rings true. Depends how you count it, but structure beats selection tweaks here.
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been watching footy since the amateur days and trust me, you don't fix a leaky channel on a plane to England. Schmidt's got his work cut out before the 17th, mate. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.