Can the Wallabies stun an unbeaten All Blacks side on October 17?
Flat record on the wall says this should be one-sided: the All Blacks are three from three in the Nations Championship with 121 points put on, while the Wallabies sit third on 8 points, outscored 114-85 across their three. I could be wrong, but the gap in points conceded (70 vs 85) is where I'd look first, defence wins Tests like this. Punters can keep their TAB multis; I'll take the ABs by double digits and just enjoy the footy before everyone jets off to the UK in November. 📊
10 posts
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✓Chris is reading the raw table right, I could be wrong but I'd add one hedge: 121 points in three wins flatters the All Blacks a touch when you see they've also leaked 70, so the Wallabies' 114-85 suggests games with points in them either way. Third on 8 points against second on a full 15 after three rounds is a real gap though. I'd take the ABs by double digits, even at Eden Park-less conditions on the 17th. 📊
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you know, I sat in the old terraces at Eden Park through a few of these mid-80s nights, and if there's one thing this fixture has taught me it's that the form book means sweet nothing once the haka finishes. watch as long as I have and you'll get it, the All Blacks can be three from three with 121 on the board and still wobble in an exact match like this one, because the Wallabies lift for the silver fern like nothing else on their calendar. Nick's got a fair point about the 70 leaked too; these games have run loose in the Nations Championship, so don't be surprised if the Wallabies' 114-85 tells you more about tempo than weakness. that said, back in my day a young wallaby side would arrive full of talk and leave having learned a hard lesson, and three wins from three suggests this black pack won't do them any favours before everyone heads north. i'd take the all blacks by a couple of scores, but i've seen worse upsets than a wallaby win on a spring evening 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
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No chance the Wallabies stun us lads, three from three and 121 points says it all 🔥💪 getting nervous now ngl, ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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All Blacks -12 looks skinny when they've leaked 70 in three. TAB paid me sweet nothing last time I chased form there. Taking Wallabies +15 and moving on 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Everyone quoting that 121-70 aggregate is skipping the step that matters: when did those points actually land? There's a nuance here. Three from three reads dominant until you notice the All Blacks have coughed up 70 in three matches, roughly 23 a game, and the Wallabies' 114-85 tells you their matches run hot too. Both defences are leaking; the gap on the ladder comes down to finishing, not a chasm in class. So when I put the two columns side by side in my own sheet, what jumps out is simple: the Wallabies only need to convert one of those leaking-defence windows into a full forty to be in this at the 60th minute, at home, in a Test where the form book usually gets thrown out by halftime anyway. Chloe's point about the -12 line being skinny lines up with exactly that read. I'd expect a tighter margin than the table suggests, somewhere in the 7-10 range, and I wouldn't touch a multi with either side conceding like they do.Numbers > vibes.
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Doubt a punter like Chloe taking +15 quietly worries me more than any haka, when the line's that generous the TAB knows something. 121 points on and 70 against in three though? That's a leaky defence dressed up as dominance. Stick Wallabies +12 and a sneaky tidy double with them next month in Cardiff, and I'll take a quiet Friday fare back from Blenheim if it lands 🍺💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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TouchlineUltra's got half of it right - the 70 conceded is the number I keep staring at too. But the nuance runs the other way: look at the Wallabies' 85 against. Three from three versus one win and two losses, and the gap isn't really the attacking output (121 vs 114 is seven points over three Tests, noise territory with a sample that small). The gap is at the other end, where one side keeps matches under control and the other keeps having to win shootouts. That's why the Wallabies are third on 8 points while the All Blacks sit on 15. For what it's worth I'm leaning towards the All Blacks by somewhere in the low teens, but I'd hesitate before touching -12, my own table says close Tests between these two have a habit of blowing out late or tightening up entirely, and this one decides bragging rights before both squads fly north to Scotland, England and Wales. If the line drifts past 15 I'd agree with Chloe; at 12 I'd rather just watch.
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Everyone staring at 70 and 85 conceded like defence decides Bledisloe Tests - I've had my fingers burnt enough times to know attack travels, defence stays home. All Blacks have put 121 on in three, Wallabies managed 114 while leaking more. That gap shows up in the second half when the bench lands and the whole thing runs away. My problem with the +15 crowd: Chloe got paid nothing chasing form last time and is now taking the generous side again. I did the same a couple of seasons back, loaded up on the underdog getting a monster line because the favourites "leaked too much", watched it get covered by the 60th minute, easy. And TouchlineUltra, if the TAB knows something with that line, remember the line moved for a reason, and it usually moves toward the favourite once the money piles on the dog. I'll take the All Blacks to cover, keep it off the multi, and save the try scorer leg for another day 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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I've had this on my spreadsheet since the schedule dropped 📊 and my honest read is that both camps in this thread are arguing past each other. Yes, the All Blacks' 121 in three matches is the strongest attack in the competition on raw output, and yes, 70 conceded is the sort of number that keeps a coach up at night. But the Wallabies' 114-85 across their own three matches says they can trade blows with anyone on their day. They've simply been on the wrong side of the swing twice. I could be wrong, but a Test like this rarely follows the league table. Weather on the night, selection calls, who handles the first twenty minutes — all of it matters more than aggregates. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say All Blacks by 9, but I wouldn't touch that line with confidence. The November tours (England away for both sides, as it happens) will tell us plenty either way. Anyone brave enough to call an upset here, or is everyone hedging like me?Do the math before you argue.