57 and 50 points in two weeks, then 21 in Auckland's shadow
FINALLY the big one is nearly here 🎉🔥 Otago v Auckland at Forsyth Barr and I genuinely can't sit still at work thinking about it!
Two weeks of pure fireworks, 57 on Tasman, 50 on Counties Manukau, then that flat 21:32 up at Harbour. Classic Otago tbh, our lot never make it easy 😅 So which mood rolls into Dunedin on October 1st?? The one that ran ragged everyone off the park, or the munted one from Albany? I'm backing the fire 🔥 cant wait, counting down the days already! 💙💛
12 posts
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✓That Harbour game was a wake-up call and tbh our lot never make it easy 😤 but 57 then 50 back to back?? Auckland's gonna feel that Dunedin crowd 🔥💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Bookies opened Auckland around -4.5 and it's already crept to -6, that tells you where the money's going. That Harbour stinker cost me a NZ$40 multi, so I'm not touching the head-to-head this time - Otago +6 at home looks the only sensible play, maybe a cheeky small punt on them at the whistle if you can find +160ish. 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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Which Otago turns up? Honestly same as my diet, two weeks of salad then a pie at midnight 🤣 line moved and I already regret my NZ$20 multi, gonna be a fun night 🍿
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Funny how everyone remembers the 57 and the 50 but conveniently skips the 24:35 at Hawke's Bay the week before 😏 this team's been a lottery all season, mate. StatHead losing NZ$40 on the Harbour stinker then tipping Otago +6 is peak punter behaviour 🤡 I'll believe the fireworks when Auckland's actually under the posts at Forsyth Barr.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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fair point from the merchant, that Hawke's Bay trip was rotten and I watched enough of it through my fingers 😄 seen it all before though - back in the amateur days Otago could beat anyone one week and lose to nobody the next, that's just southern rugby for you. the 57 and the 50 weren't flukes, the forward pack actually went forward, but Harbour showed what happens when they fall asleep for twenty minutes. my two bob's worth: Forsyth Barr under lights with a full house is worth a good ten points to this side, always has been. I'd back the home crowd to drag the right Otago out of bed, punter up there worrying about his multi, I'd tell him the line's closer than the bookies think 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Both wins were at home or against pumpable sides though, hey. Harbour away was always gonna sting. Ask me again after the TAB line settles 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Ultra88 nailed it, seen it all before too, I was at that Tasman night thinking the season had turned, then Harbour happened 😄 my caveat would be the crowd: Forsyth Barr under lights has dragged a lazy Otago side over the line more than once, and Auckland away form up north is one thing, fronting a packed house down here is another. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it. The mood that turns up is usually the one the crowd drags out of them.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Both big wins came off short turnaround chaos, Harbour had a full week to prep - that's the actual variable nobody's pricing 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Supporter_88 has got a point about the turnarounds, though i'd add weather to that mix too, a southerly rolling into Forsyth Barr on the night and all that fancy running rugby goes out the window 😄 i sat through plenty of ugly ones in that old Carisbrook southerly back in my day, and the young lot never saw how a side can just dig in and grind when the sky turns nasty. which otago turns up? whoever adapts first, i reckon.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Funny how everyone's suddenly a weather expert when their pick looks shaky 😂 MatchdayTillIDie's got a point though - I was at the Tasman night and the place was rocking, roof off vibes, Otago looked like world-beaters for 60 minutes. Then Harbour happened and the same side couldn't buy a try. Question for the room: does anyone actually believe the Harbour game, or were they just cooked after two heavy weeks with bugger-all turnaround? Supporter_88's short-week theory is doing a lot of work here, and Auckland get a full prep too. Me, I'm keeping my NZ$ in my pocket till I see the TAB line, remind me of your ROI on these "variables", Andy? 😏Any stat can be bent.
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I've watched Otago-Auckland nights since before some of you lot were born, and I'll tell you the one thing they taught me: forget the last three weeks entirely. Back in the day we'd roll into a derby off two hidings and get beaten anyway, then pinch one when nobody gave us a snowball's chance. That Tasman night, the 57, I remember thinking she's turned the corner, then Harbour quietly reminded everyone this game humbles you quicker than a southerly off the harbour. Expectations are the trickiest beast in rugby. Put a yard of hype in front of a young side and half of them play like it's a exhibition, the other half freeze. Auckland will know exactly what's coming and they've seen that running game on tape. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it - the form guide is a suggestion, the occasion is the truth. Anyway, that's why they play the thing. Forsyth Barr under lights, 1 October, I wouldn't swap my seat for anything 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.