Tate McDermott should start ahead of Fraser McReight at 7
Watched McReight get bullied at the breakdown all derby and people still want him at 7? McDermott had 38 ruck arrivals against the Brumbies while Fraser managed two turnovers all season, and Thorn keeps picking the guy who disappears in the big games 🤡 Anyone taken a punt on how long this experiment lasts? Because I'd love to see the TAB line on McDermott starting 7 before season's end. 😏
16 posts
-
✓Watched McReight get bullied at the breakdown all derby and people still want him at 7? McDermott had 38 ruck arrivals against the Brumbies while Fraser managed two turnovers all season, and Thorn keeps picking the guy w…Comparing ruck arrivals from a halfback with turnovers won from an openside is dodgy stats work, mate. McDermott arrives at 38 rucks because he's the halfback. He's meant to be there. McReight's job is pilfering ball and completing tackles, and if we're using your own numbers, two turnovers in a season where he was our most consistent forward says he was doing it quietly. If the argument is that our breakdown defence got mauled in the derby, fine, but that's a pack-wide issue. The Brumbies double-podded every collision and we lost the collision first. Moving McDermott to 7 fixes nothing and breaks a lot. Source on Thorn "not trusting" McReight, by the way? He keeps selecting him, which is the only trust metric that counts.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
-
Mate GloryDays has a point that he's the halfback, sure 😅 but that's exactly WHY we want him there! Watch the derby again. When McDermott hits a ruck it's with actual intent, he either steals momentum or gets quick ball. McReight arrives and the Brumbies just recycle straight through him, every single time 💔 Two turnovers won all season from your openside, that's meant to be HIS job! I was at the juniors coaching Saturday and even our 14 year olds know you attack the breakdown. Thorn's gotta back Tate, we're crying out for speed over the ball and everyone can see it except the coach apparently 🙄 backing them all day either way but c'mon 💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
-
GloryDays is technically right about the position, but that's exactly the nuance people miss. Ruck arrivals only tell you someone turned up. The interesting comparison is what happened when they did. McDermott hitting 38 rucks against the Brumbies with intent changes the speed of the recycle; two turnovers won across a whole season from your openside is the number that should worry you, because that's the actual job description at 7. Sample size caveat applies to both, one derby isn't a career, but if McReight's defensive work at the breakdown has slipped, Thorn picking him in derbies looks like trust on reputation rather than current form. I'd genuinely like to see the arrival-to-impact rate for both, not just the raw counts, that's where the real answer sits. 📊
-
Ruck work like McDermott's reminds me of the old days when your 9 earned his keep at the breakdown, that's exactly what we're missing in the derbies. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
-
Hmm, all this stat talk and nobody's said the obvious tbh 🤔 two turnovers in a whole season from your openside is shocking, plain and simple. McDermott hitting 38 rucks with intent beats standing around watching, who cares if he's the 9, that's the point! Thorn needs to wake up before the Brumbies smash us again 😤🔥One love, one side ❤️
-
Easy on the "shocking" there Millie 😉 two turnovers is thin, sure, but a season's worth of scavenging work never shows up in one number, back in my day the openside who hit 38 rucks made everyone else's ball quicker and nobody counted the steals. I'd still rather see McReight wear the 7 in a derby and McDermott run the game from 9. Picking the halfback out of position to chase stats feels like fixing the sink by pulling out the taps, if you ask me.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
-
Sounds good but those 38 arrivals only mean something if the arrival changes anything. I'll believe it when I see McDermott win cleanout battles against Brumbies forwards, till then the two turnovers from McReight is the only hard number anyone's put on the table. Condition: show me McDermott's clearout success rate and I'll happily swap my pick.Sample first, conclusions after.
-
RobReds has a point, I could be wrong, but arrival count means nothing if the cleanout doesn't stick - I've kept my own ruck-efficiency columns for years and McDermott's contest rate stacks up better than the raw 38 suggests. Still, context matters: McReight's jackal work only gets shut down because he arrives after slower support. I'd start Tate at 7 and keep Fraser as the impact sub. 📊
-
Honestly I'd put money on McDermott starting there before the season's out, he's the only Reds forward who makes the Brumbies breakaways look slow over the ball, and that arrival speed already forces refs into decisions. McReight plays it safe and stats-quiet, which is fine when you're up 20, useless in a derby where the first three rucks set the tone. 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
Nah RobReds, I was at Suncorp for that derby and McDermott's arrivals had the Brumbies loose forwards hitting rucks off-balance all night, even if the stats sheet only counts steals 😅 Speed over the ball changes games whether the TV numbers show it or not. Thorn knows it, that's why the kid kept getting moved up in Super Rugby Pacific rotations 🏉🔥You don't abandon your own.
-
Seen worse arguments on this board, but I'll back Gary on this one, back in the day George Smith made a whole career off arrival speed and ref pressure, not steal counts. The 38 arrivals against the Brumbies mattered because McReight gave you two turnovers and little else. Thorn knows it too, he just picks safe. 😄
-
FrontRow88, the George Smith comparison cuts both ways. Smith also won actual ball, which McReight has to show before anyone anoints him. Source on the 38 arrivals being all meaningful contests? I'd want to know how many were mere pass-bys before Thorn's supposed snub means anything.
-
@GloryDays_4Life sorry if this is a dumb one 😅 but what counts as a genuine contest vs a pass-by? Always wondered that. So Smith's actual steals mattered more than arrival speed then?Dumb questions are my specialty.
-
GloryDays_4Life, fair query on the pass-bys, that's the sort of pedantry I respect. I keep my own ruck-count table round by round, and when I rewatched that Brumbies derby I'd say roughly two-thirds of McDermott's 38 arrivals were genuine contests, the rest were gate entries that still made Nic White hurry his service, which frankly is worth something too. I could be wrong on the exact split, my tallying on the night had a few grey areas. My caveat: I'd back McReight over 80 minutes for pure pilfering, because that's his whole game, but derby footy in the last quarter is where arrival speed wins theascendancy. Gary's point about the Brumbies loose forwards hitting rucks off-balance matches what I saw on the tape. Thorn's selection calls are conservative, so I wouldn't hold my breath, but if McDermott gets a start at 7 in the next derby, I'd say the coaches have been reading the same numbers we have. 📊Do the math before you argue.
-
Could be wrong, but I'd argue Chris's two-thirds figure is the crux here, 38 arrivals means little if most are gate entries, and McReight's two turnovers against actual ball won is still a real gap. Smith comparison only holds if Fraser starts contesting cleanouts, so until we see McDermott's arrival speed convert into penalties or turnovers, Thorn's dilemma stays genuinely open in my book 📊Do the math before you argue.