Taranaki smashed Southland 55:19, Wellington leaked 52 to Northland
Anyone who saw those two scores and thinks 10+ at the book is fair, I'd love some of whatever they're drinking. Taranaki put 55 on Southland, sure, but Wellington leaking 52 at home to Northland is where the line moved, one blowout each way does my head in. I've had double-digit lines land before and burn just as many; I'm happy taking Taranaki but I want the line under 10, anything more and it's a pass for my multi legs 💸
10 posts
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✓Lucy's onto something real, the market overreacts to blowouts more than any other result type, and here we've got two of them in the same round. My spreadsheet has Taranaki's home margin over the last stretch sitting around the high teens, so a 10+ line isn't crazy on base rate, but one 55:19 against a Southland side that's been leaky all year is a thin sample to price from. Wellington conceding 52 at home is uglier though; defensive collapses travel worse than attack does, which is why I'd lean towards the line being fair rather than inflated.
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"High teens" from what sample? Two rounds ago Wellington were meant to beat Northland comfortably too. Define your stretch and show me the games behind it.
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Retro asking for spreadsheets while backing a team that shipped 52 at home 😂 take the 10, chuck $20 on it and cry later if you like. 🤡💸It's a lottery, not sport.
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Ten points feels right to me, honestly. Wellington shipping 52 at home stings more than Taranaki's 55 because Southland are worse than a wet weekend and Northland actually had to earn theirs. I'd wait for the line to settle before chucking NZ$ on it though, those blowout-priced lines usually shorten once the casual money lands midweek. 🍺Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe, Southland worse than Northland on what basis, the table or a gut feel? One blowout each, and the line's moved double digits. Source on that being "fair"?Sample first, conclusions after.
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Margin bands I know off by heart say 10 against a side that just conceded 52 at home is barely market rate. I'd want 12+ before it's value. Skipping the multi leg this week. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe, you've half got a point but "Northland had to earn theirs" is doing a lot of lifting on no evidence - one bad home loss from either side and suddenly we're pricing Taranaki at double digits. Matchday wanting 12+ before value is the only sensible read here; I'll concede the line might be right, on condition that someone shows me form beyond a single blowout each.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Line's priced off the two blowouts, sure, but as a punter I want to see how both travel this weekend - Taranaki away to Hawke's Bay and Wellington hosting Waikato will tell us more than either thrashing. If Wellington leak again at home, 10 looks soft; if they bounce back, it's inflated. My NZ$ stays out of the multi leg until Sunday night, on and forgotten otherwise. 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Agree with Josh, this weekend decides it. Taranaki away at Hawke's Bay on the 27th and Wellington hosting Waikato will either stiffen or deflate that 10. As it sits I'm not paying double digits off one blowout apiece; if Wellington leak again at home I'd take Taranaki -10, but that's a Saturday-arvo call, not today's. Keeping the multi leg out till then 😭💸Value over a big price 💸