Northland bounce back at Semenoff or Southland spoils it on 2 October?
Took the loss to Counties Manukau on the chin last week, had Northland -4 at the sportsbook and it didn't land by a single point. Painful, that one.
For 2 October at Semenoff I'm leaning Northland -6 or better. Look at the pattern: 52 at Wellington, 34 against Waikato at home, then a flat 19 in front of the home crowd. This side swings wildly week to week and travel seems to spark them. The two big scores were both away or rolling. Southland away is usually honest but limited, so if the Taniwha pack shows up I'd expect a double-digit win. Staking small, NZ$20 straight with a bit on the 21-30 margin band too. If that Counties result repeats though, I'm done chasing this team for the season 😭💸
14 posts
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✓I'd hold off on -6, Chloe. The Counties Manukau loss at Semenoff is the only home sample we've got, and that's a three-point defeat - sample of one, but it tempers me. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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That Wellington away trip was my best read of the season, took Northland straight up and it landed easy, 52:28. But I'd side with Chris here. One home game all year and they lost it by 3 to Counties Manukau, that tempers me too. 😭 For 2 October I'm actually looking at Southland +8 or thereabouts rather than chasing a Northland -6. Road form's been wild either way: put 42 on North Harbour and 52 on Wellington in the same month, that's a coin toss side, not a settled one. My TAB approach: keep them out of the multi head-to-head, maybe try odd try scorer instead. Safer on the bankroll until they show me something at Semenoff twice. 💸The line moves — catch it.
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Chloe, didn't you also fancy Northland at North Harbour? 😂 How'd that 42:57 work out for your TAB slip, mate?Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Robbed's got a point, Chloe, Harbour away and Counties at Semenoff in the space of three weeks, and you were on the Taniwha both times? 😂 Here's my read though: that 52:28 in Wellington was proper fire, then they rock home and lose by 3 to Counties Manukao on their own turf. Which tells me the road trip was the outlier, or Semenoff just doesn't suit them. One home sample all season and it's a loss, Chris is right to pump the brakes on anything past -6. I'll wait for the fanboys to pile in before touching that line myself. Southland spoiling it wouldn't even shock me 😏Any stat can be bent.
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that counties manukau loss reminded me of a night at carisbrook years back when otago lost to a side they'd smashed the week before, footy has a habit of humbling you right when you get comfortable. i'm with chris and truefan on this one, that three-point defeat is the only home sample and it tempers me too, though i'd add a wee caveat: the taniwha played decent footy that night, just couldn't finish. back in my day we called that losing the ledger, not the game 😄 for 2 october at semenoff i'd take a smaller number than -6 if the line offers it, or just the straight up. southland away trips north are never easy, watch as long as i have and you'll get it, sides turn up weird when they cross the bombays. still, seen worse than backing a team that put 52 on Wellington.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Two home games, one win and one loss, and people still tipping the Taniwha like Semenoff is a fortress? 😂 That Counties loss sobered me up quick.It's a lottery, not sport.
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underdog knows it - seen worse at rugby park down here, southland spoiling a favourite's night more than once. i'd take northland but keep the line modest. ah well, we'll seeSeen it all, lads.
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Chloe lost by a single point on the line and she's still tipping Northland -6 😂 that's faith, or brain damage, hard to tell. The bit everyone keeps skating past: they put 52 on Wellington away, then stroll back to Semenoff, their own ground, mind - and cough up a 3-point loss to Counties Manukau. Same week. That's not a form dip, that's a coin flip of a team. I'd rather take Southland getting a start than touch that line. Model_Head said the fortress talk should be dead, and he's right, one win and one loss at home tells you everything. Wait for the fanboys to pile in with "they owed us one" takes though, that's always comedy gold 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Metric_nerd has it about right i reckon, take the taniwha but keep the line modest. this side of mine has been flip-flopping all september: put 52 on Wellington away, handled waikato nicely, then couldn't finish counties manukau on their own patch. no pattern there you'd trust your house on. back in my day you'd just watch the first twenty minutes and know which mob turned up 😄 these days everyone wants a number before wednesday. i'll say this to the young lot chasing -6: semonoff's been anything but a fortress this season, so southland + anything under a try looks the value side to me. patience, punters, patience.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Chloe, remind me of your ROI again? Because backing the Taniwha at -4 after they'd just leaked 57 to North Harbour, then going again at -6, feels like a bloke chasing his losses on the pokies 😂 Real question nobody's answered in this thread: which Northland shows up on 2 October, the one that put 52 on Wellington away, or the one that lost at home to Counties Manukau three weeks after getting torched by North Harbour? That's four results in a month and none of them agree with each other. Sure thing, mate, I'll trust a -6 line off that form. Southland at home has been a banana skin for travelling sides forever, Metric_nerd knows, he's seen it up at Rugby Park. I'm keeping my NZ$ stake small or just watching this one with a cold one. 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Metric_nerd's got it right I reckon, take the Taniwha but keep the line modest. Back in the day Southland at home was always a sneaky trap; seen worse than one point misses 😉
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Chloe putting Northland -6 at Semenoff after they lost there to Counties Manukau - that's a hero punt 😂 which Taniwha turns up, the Wellington one or the 57-conceding one? 🤡
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Taxi till 2am Friday so I'll be on the night shift for this one. But I've already loaded up a modest TAB multi with Northland at home and a small saver on Southland +8. That Counties Manukau slip at Semenoff burnt NZ$20 of mine, lesson taken: no hero lines here. Which Taniwha turns up, nobody knows - see you after the match 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.