Moana Pasifika to grab a third win before the season's out
567 points conceded in 14 games, I can't see the defence fixing that in a fortnight. I'd sooner back a near miss than the win, Moana keeping it under 15 at home in Auckland feels like the only value play on the the sportsbook line here. Straight head-to-head? No thanks, that's money burnt 🔥
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✓567 points conceded in 14 games, I can't see the defence fixing that in a fortnight. I'd sooner back a near miss than the win, Moana keeping it under 15 at home in Auckland feels like the only value play on the the sport…Every punter in this thread is treating 567 conceded like it's fixed forever, but the line knows only this weekend. Home in Auckland against someone who's already got a finals spot locked up is exactly the sort of game where a dead team plays angry and the rested side goes through the motions - I've landed enough long-odds multis off that exact pattern not to respect it. Still, I'm not paying full head-to-head for it either. My play: small stake on Moana at the big price, but the real money on them inside 15 with the plus line, same as StatHeadnerd said. If the win lands, beautiful, that's the difference between a quiet Sunday and a good one. If not, it was a tenner of fun money, on and forgotten. 🔥Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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Ran the table myself after reading StatHeadnerd's post, and the defence number is even uglier when you slice it properly: 567 conceded over 14 rounds works out to roughly 40 a game, which means even a decent defensive outing only drags them to a near-certain loss unless the attack spikes. Their 276 for isn't hopeless on its own - that's competitive scoring. But the WLLLL run with two wins from fourteen says the floor keeps falling out in the second half of matches. There's a nuance here though: home games in Auckland have historically been where their competitiveness shows, so the under-15 margin play has more logic than the straight head-to-head. Small sample though, two home performances can't carry a whole betting thesis, and I'd want to see the team list before putting NZ$ anywhere near it. My lean matches StatHeadnerd: near miss over the win, but I'd size it like a punt, not a position.
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TouchlineUltra backing the dead cat bounce, cute 😂 Same energy as your last call that tanked spectacularly. What's your record this season, one from ten? 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Dead cat bounce or not, 2 wins in 14 and they're still 11th - the table's that bad 😏 TouchlineUltra's "plays angry" theory is doing a lot of heavy lifting with nothing behind it. Remind me of your ROI again? 🤡Show me your ROI first 😏
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I was at Eden Park back in the day when a beaten side turned up one week and played out of their skins the next, so TouchlineUltra's got a point the number-crunchers keep skipping past 😄 my caveat though - that "plays angry" spark usually needs a cause, and a team shipped 567 points doesn't look like one with much fight left in the tank. I'd take the near miss too, keep it under 15 at home. Seen worse sides sneak a win in round 14 though, so a cheeky few dollars on them at the TAB wouldn't be the worst punt of my life.Seen it all, lads.
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Funny how everyone suddenly loves the emotional angle when their spreadsheets fail 😏 Eden Park crowd of a few thousand counts as "hostile" now? Laughable really 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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seen worse sides than this snag a win out of nowhere, andy. That small Eden Park crowd got loud back in my day 😄 but 567 conceded, I'd take the near miss too, ten bucks on a tight loss maybeBeen here longer than some have followed.
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567 shipped and folk want the "plays angry" spark, that'd be the angriest side in the comp then 😂 I've stuck a lazy NZ$10 on the near miss too, anything more is a donation.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Seen worse, true enough, I watched Moana run the Crusaders close at home once and the crowd lifted them for a good twenty minutes. Still, 567 points is a lot of holes to plug.Seen it all, lads.
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agreed with the near-miss call, metric, that crowd at eden park can carry a side for a spell, back in my day i saw worse northish sides than this get up off the canvas at home. but 567 against doesn't fix itself in a fortnight, defence is a season-long graft. i'd take the tight loss too, small punt on the tab only, anything bigger and you're just tipping money into the harbour 😄Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Everyone quoting 567 like it's a prophecy 😂 crowd at Eden Park might get them twenty loud minutes, Metric's right, but the TAB line on a near miss is doing the heavy lifting here, my coin's on the under 15 too. Third win? she'll be right, aye... sure 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Been burned by this exact story before, so I'll keep the stake small. Putting NZ$15 on Moana +15 at home through the TAB and a fiver on the outright win purely because the price has drifted far enough that one lucky night at Eden Park pays for the whole month's multis. W2 from 14 with 567 shipped says the defence is a season-long write-off, no argument there, but Auckland crowd plus a bottom-of-the-table opponent having an off week is how shock results happen. Win probably doesn't land, near miss almost certainly does. See you after the match, we'll know who called it 😭🍺The line moves — catch it.