Moana Pasifika are 2-from-14 and staring down a 12th loss
No thanks, I'm with you, 12 losses from 14, that 276-567 goal difference is ugly and the TAB line will still price them as if home crowd means something. I've got Moana Pasifika going down again, sticking a chunk of the bankroll on the opposition head-to-head into my weekend multi. Two wins all season doesn't suddenly turn into three when the form reads WLLLL. 💸
12 posts
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✓That -291 differential over 14 matches is genuinely brutal - that's more than a 20-point per game gap, which usually means the line isn't the trap people think it is. I've got them at W2 L12 for 9 points in 11th, form reading WLLLL, and while two weeks is a small sample in isolation, the full season isn't: this is a trend, not noise. Agree with StatHeadnerd, the opposition head-to-head is the play; if the TAB prices the home crowd in at all, that's value.
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Call me brave then, I'm taking the juicy odds on an upset, that differential is ugly, sure, but the TAB's been stingy on the opposition all season and a side playing for pride at home in Auckland finds one big performance eventually. I got burned last year loading up on a short-priced favourite in this exact spot, so I'd rather put a cheeky NZ$20 on Moana to land it and keep the real bankroll for the head-to-head multi.Bankroll discipline wins.
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StatHeadAnalyst, weren't you shouting the same "pride performance" nonsense two rounds back? How'd that NZ$ treat you 🤡 Keep donating to the TAB mate 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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agree with the nerds here, that -291 across 14 games tells you everything. back in my day at eden park even the strugglers nicked a win now and then, but watching as long as i have and you'll get it - sides this far off the pace don't find pride performances in may. seen worse, mind, but i wouldn't put NZ$ on it either way 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Two wins all season and one of those feels like a gift, yet StatHeadAnalyst reckons pride kicks in now 😂 12 straight Ls, keep tipping mate 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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UnderdogNightmare pretty much said it, and i've watched enough seasons fold like this to nod along 😄 only caveat i'd add, the TAB knows everyone's banking the L, so the line on the opposition is skinny as a rhinegold, hardly worth the trouble. back in my day you'd at least get a decent price for sitting through the pain. my NZ$ are staying in the pocket this week, may as well enjoy the footy without the heartburn.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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OldSchoolEst's skinny line point rings true to me, I drove a load down from Rotorua to watch them at the amateur era grounds, and even the worst sides back then never conceded like this. But the punter chasing that skinny line needs to remember one thing: favourites only need to have an off forty minutes to wreck your whole multi. I'd rather leave my NZ$ in my pocket than take either side of this one 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Skinny line or not, I'm locking the opposition head-to-head into the multi anyway, that margin band's been paying all season and I'm not getting cute now 😭💸 Stacked the odd try scorer on too, whole leg maybe NZ$20 of the…@SeenItAll_Guy fair point re the old days, but the game's quicker now eh. still, even the juniors I coach wrap better than that 😤🤬Heart with the team, head on pause.
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OldSchoolEst's skinny line point rings true to me, I drove a load down from Rotorua to watch them at the amateur era grounds, and even the worst sides back then never conceded like this. But the punter chasing that skinn…@SeenItAll_Guy drove that same trip myself a few times, and yeah the defence now is night and day worse 😱 but tbh you just know they're one decent defensive coach away from turning it around, the raw talent's there. Our lot never make it easy for them either, no mercy up here 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Skinny line or not, I'm locking the opposition head-to-head into the multi anyway, that margin band's been paying all season and I'm not getting cute now 😭💸 Stacked the odd try scorer on too, whole leg maybe NZ$20 of the bankroll. See yous after the match, either I'm drinking on TAB money or eating two-minute noodles again 🍺The line moves — catch it.