Everyone writes off Moana Pasifika
Two wins from fourteen and 567 points against. I'm not tipping Moana, simple as that. Had a crack earlier in the season backing them off memory of that fast start they always seem to produce, cost me NZ$40 in a multi and the lesson stuck: form is form, and WLLLL isn't turning into an upset just because it's Auckland. On and forgotten.
If anyone here wants value over a big price, my actual play is taking the opposition on the line rather than straight head-to-head. The TAB prices on Moana getting smashed are already short enough that there's no margin left in the blowout. Keep the stake sensible, NZ$20-30 range for me this week, bankroll is everything when you're punting a team this leaky. Anyone brave enough for the outright upset, good luck to you, but I'd rather back something that's landed before. 💸
9 posts
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✓Josh, I could be wrong, but the sample backs you: 9 points from 14 rounds and 291-point differential. No number in that WLLLL run screams upset. NZ$0 for me.
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Streaks like that get priced in, Nick. A fiver head-to-head on Moana at home is value over the big price, NZ$5, max. Loss doesn't dent the bankroll 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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Josh "lesson stuck" my backside - remind me of your ROI again before you go preaching about form? 😂 Nick hiding behind "the sample backs you" is cute too, that's the same talk you gave last time you tanked a tip. Only StatHead gets it: a fiver on Moana at home is entertainment money, and if they stumble again I've lost less than a pie run 🤡💸
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Rob, curious how you'd price a side conceding 40 a game. Derbies shrink margins, sure, but I need the line to drop below that before a cent goes on them.Numbers > vibes.
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567 against and you lot still doing maths like it means something 😂 they're at home, someone's always gonna get a fright. chucking NZ$10 on the upset, backing them all day 🏉🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Supporter_Fan, you're my kind of madness, but NZ$10 on pure heart against a side shipping 40+ a game? 📊 I keep my own sheet every round and the pattern with Moana at home is consistent: they hang around for 30-40 minutes, then the bench gap opens up and the score blows out. That WLLLL run tells you the wins came earlier, the fade is current. Small sample though, and BadBeatKing has the right frame, the question is purely what price you need. I'd take them head-to-head only if the home fixture prices them at genuine long odds, maybe NZ$5 at the absolute ceiling, and nothing in a multi where one leg drags the whole ticket down. Fijian Drua away is the one I circle instead; their defence leaks worse on the road. Caveat applies to everything above: fourteen matches is a decent read on quality, a terrible read on next week's upset, which is exactly why the TAB price is the whole argument.
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55 points a game against and yous are doing spreadsheet maths like it'll save the tip 😂 I'm with Supporter_Fan, NZ$10 on the upset, heart says it all 🙌🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Chucked NZ$15 on Moana head-to-head at the bookmaker purely because the price is fat enough to pay for my Friday fares 😭 if they're still in it at the 50th like FixIsInPTSD says, I'll sweat, otherwise on and forgotten. See yous after fulltime 💸🔥Value over a big price 💸