Everyone's riding North Harbour after three straight wins
That 57-42 shooting match vs Northland flattered them badly. You don't concede 42 and call it form. BoP away on 4 October is a different beast, and Harbour's one real test at home (Canterbury) ended 24:25 against them. I'd take Bay of Plenty to win, maybe give the line a miss and just lay NZ$20 head-to-head at the TAB as a single. 🔥
12 posts
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✓Katie88's got a point worth checking against the splits: Harbour's three wins came against sides that conceded freely, and 42 points allowed to Northland is a red flag on defence. The Canterbury loss at Albany (24:25) is the only match in the sample against quality opposition, and they lost it. Caveat being it's four games, which is nowhere near enough to bury them, but I'd want a far better price on the away win at Rotorua than the home form suggests before touching it 📊
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Both sides have points, but what's the TAB line done? If it's opened wide for Harbour you take the points with BoP at home. Rotorua away in spring? Painful trip. 💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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Everyone's a punting prophet the week after a 57-42 thriller, eh. Last time you lot talked up a "sure thing" here you tanked it too, so I'll trust the TAB line over your hot takes 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Concede 42 to Northland then lose at home to Canterbury and everyone's suddenly booking Harbour in Rotorua. Put your NZ$ on them if you're that confident, I'm taking the points with BoP 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Katie88's read on it matches what my eyes told me too. Back in my day we used to say a defence that leaks 42 to Northland will leak plenty in Rotorua, and Harbour only real test at Albany ended 24:25 the wrong way. Seen worse tips go sideways though, so I'd keep any NZ$ stake small and take the points with Bay of Plenty.Been here longer than some have followed.
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ha, katie's got it right, 42 points conceded at home tells you more about harbour than the 57 does 😄 mind you, back in my day we'd still have put a few nz$ on them in rotorua just for the hell of it. canterbury game showed they fold when someone actually tackles. i'll be watching, but the young lot going mad over three wins should hold their horses.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Wow, four replies all harping on the same Canterbury game, needling originality much 😂. Hawke's Bay away was a proper grind though, 31:24, so the form isn't just the Northland circus. 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Andy makes a fair point about Hawke's Bay, that 31:24 away win was a proper grown-up performance, no circus about it 😄 But I'd still want to see them handle the travel down to Rotorua, back in my day the away trips sorted the pretenders from the real thing quick smart, and one gritty win doesn't erase 42 points leaked at Albany. Patience, fellas, we'll know plenty more by the 4th.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Everyone cherry-picking stats like a bloke picking winning lotto tickets after the draw 😂 Fact is their defence leaked 42 even in a blowout, so anyone happily lumping on Harbour at the TAB in Rotorua deserves what's coming. Conceding try-fests against Northland says bugger all about facing a proper forward pack away. Remind me of your ROI before you tell me 4 October is easy money, eh 💸
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Fair point from Andy on Hawke's Bay, but 24:25 at home to Canterbury is where my money went quiet. Loaded up small on BoP at the TAB for the 4th — head-to-head plus the line - and left the odd try scorer out this time. If Harbour's defence travels to Rotorua like it did against Canterbury, it lands easily. See you all after the match 😄💸The line moves — catch it.