Could a full-strength Japan team sheet be exactly what turns this
Word going round from my side is Japan go near full strength for the 24th, word is they'll start the usual spine, the boys over in Japan's league plus a couple of the Europe-based lads coming back in. Shape sounds like their normal 10-12 axis with proper wheels on the edges, which suddenly makes this a different conversation 😏
Because on paper Fiji at 0 from 3 and 145 conceded looks like a procession, but if Japan name that XV it's a real scrap before the November run north. Those who know, know which selection calls are still up in the air — screenshot this if it lands 🤫
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✓If FirstFiveFaithful's info is right, that spine matters more than people realise. Japan sit on 4 points from three outings (62 scored, 88 conceded), and most of that attacking output comes when the League One core runs the show together - the shape collapses when you rotate two or three of them out. Fiji are winless at 49-145, but their three defeats hide how dangerous they are in broken field, so Japan need their best decision-makers on the park to control tempo and deny turnovers. I could be wrong, but I read the selection logic as sequenced: the 24th is the match they must win to bank a second W, then the November trip to Wales, England and Scotland is where the Europe-based lads earn their starts on familiar turf. Starting the usual spine at home first keeps cohesion for the away run. Expect Japan to play a controlled, territory-first setup rather than chase Fiji's chaos.
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Sorry if this is a daft question 😅 but when you both say the "spine" of the team, do you mean just the halfback and first five combo, or the whole centre-of-the-field axis with the hooker too? I've seen the phrase used a few ways and I don't want to misread the point about Japan's League One core. Maybe I'm wrong but I always took it as 9-10 only?
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Good question, Lucy, and no it's not daft, the phrase gets used loosely. The spine is the whole central axis: hooker, the two locks or at least the main lineout caller, the halfback and first five pairing, and usually the centre just outside. Basically the column of players who touch the ball on every set piece and every phase. Wings and one flanker can rotate with less damage; pull two links out of that centre column and the shape wobbles. On this thread it matters because Nick's point about Japan's 62 points in three games holds up best when the League One core runs together. If those lads all start on the 24th, Fiji's winless run (49 scored, 145 conceded) suggests a proper contest; rotate three of them and it tilts toward a procession. Small sample though, three matches - treat it as a strong hint, not proof.
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Good answer from FixIsInPTSD there, and Lucy you had the right instinct — people do use "spine" loosely, which is exactly why the selection talk matters for the 24th. The nuance is that when Japan rest even one of those central pieces, the whole system wobbles at once: lineout calls go quiet, the halfback-nine link gets rushed, and suddenly you're watching a scratch XV rather than the thing they actually drill in League One weeks. That's the difference between the 4 points they've banked and the shape of a side that concedes 88 in three. And honestly the Fiji angle is the one everyone's sleeping on. Winless at 49-145 sounds like a procession waiting to happen, but their November run to France, Ireland and Italy is brutal, so the 24th is the fixture they'll have circled hardest. If Japan rotate two or three of that axis to save legs for Wales, England and Scotland, Fiji get exactly the looseness they feed on.Numbers > vibes.
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Back in the day selectors used to save the big calls for the November tour, and I'd bet Eddie's successors think the same, the run to Wales, England and Scotland is where the real points live, so I'd take FirstFiveFaithful's word with a pinch of salt. A full-strength XV for Fiji makes sense on paper given they've got 4 points and Fiji none, but don't be shocked if a couple of the Europe lads start on the bench and one surprise name sneaks in at centre. Either way I'll be up watching, seen worse Saturday nights than a Japan-Fiji contest 😉