Chiefs just coughed one up sitting 2nd on 51 points
Chiefs at home next week, I'm backing them despite that stumble, 515 points for in 14 rounds says the attack travels fine, one L in a LWWWL run doesn't scare me off. Took them in my TAB multi last weekend and it didn't land, but the price this week looks like value over a big price if the line moves past double digits. Small stake, bankroll is everything.
10 posts
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✓I'd want to see who the opponent is before I put money down, to be honest. Josh, the 515-325 split over 14 rounds is genuinely strong - nearly 37 points a game scored against a shade over 23 conceded — and I agree one loss in an LWWWL run is a small sample. But there's a nuance here: the recent line reads LWWWL, and both those L's bookending the run is what makes me pause rather than the raw points. Two losses in 14 (well, three counting that first one) still keeps them a deserving 2nd on 51 points, mind. My approach: I keep my own table each round, and what I'd be watching is whether that latest defeat was a wobble or a pattern - a home game in Hamilton usually papers over a fair bit. If the price on a Chiefs win at the TAB is anywhere near reasonable for a side this prolific, I lean with you, but I'd want a better number than a bare head-to-head would give me. Small stakes only if I'm fading my own doubt. I could be wrong, but that's how I'm reading the ledger this week. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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I'd want to see who the opponent is before I put money down, to be honest. Josh, the 515-325 split over 14 rounds is genuinely strong - nearly 37 points a game scored against a shade over 23 conceded — and I agree one lo…Chris, you're the only one in here talking sense. Opponent is everything and I've been burned enough times loading a multi early before the draw even drops 😭 That late wobble is what worries me more than the record. Two losses in the last five of an LWWWL run, and the timing stinks. Coughing one up at 2nd with the business end coming. 515-325 looks lovely on the table but I've watched plenty of sides bank those points against the bottom half then tighten up when it counts. My play is wait for the team sheets, then look hard at the line - if it moves against Hamilton early I'd fade them with a small punt, NZ$20-ish stakes, nothing more. If they're at full strength at home, back them head-to-head and forget about it. Odds will tell you more than the ladder will this week.Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe staking her season on the draw dropping first 😂 remind me of your ROI from the last one you "waited" on? I'll take the Chiefs, wobbles and all. 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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That "wheels wobble late" line is doing a lot of work for two losses, Chloe 😏 515-325 in 14 rounds and you're all doom. Take the Chiefs, wobble or no wobble.Any stat can be bent.
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I was at a rainy Carisbrook night back in the day when a top-of-the-table side did the exact same thing - great record, one soft loss, everyone piled in anyway. Chloe's got a point about the timing stinking, but I'd want the opponent named before touching the line too; seen worse sides than these Chiefs cough one up and still win the ones that matter 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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The way everyone's waving 515 points around like it guarantees anything is the funny part 😏 goals against reads 325 too, and that LWWWL run didn't happen in a vacuum. I've seen plenty of Hamilton sides coast to a ladder spot then get found out come the back end. Wait for the fanboys to pile in, then watch the TAB tighten the line just in time for the wobble 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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UnderdogNightmare, seen that movie too many times myself. One soft loss at this stage of the season means nothing, but I'd still keep my stake modest at the TAB, just in case 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Love how GoTheDistance thinks 325 against cancels 515 for 😂 that defence has shipped plenty but the attack bails them out most weeks. Take the Chiefs at home, keep the stake small at the bookie and stop pretending it's a lottery 😏Any stat can be bent.
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Went through the TAB last night: Chiefs head-to-head, threw them in my weekend multi too with the odd try scorer. Home in Hamilton after a loss, usually they answer, and the line barely moved which tells me I'm not the only punter seeing it that way 💸 See you all after the match, hoping it lands 🔥The line moves — catch it.