Chiefs at 11-3 and second on the ladder
Chiefs at home in Hamilton, I'm backing them with confidence, 515 points from 14 games is a machine, and TAB will probably have them around $1.25 head-to-head which still feels fair to me. Only worry is that form LWWWL shows they can stumble, so I'd rather take them minus a small line than the straight win at short odds. 💸
11 posts
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✓Touchline, I'd temper the $1.25 confidence a touch. I could be wrong, but the form line is the nuance here: LWWWL means two of their three losses sit in their last five. Over 14 matches they're 11-3 with 515 for and 325 against, which still stacks up as the second-best attack on the ladder at 51 points, so I'm not fading them at all. My read: back them in Hamilton, but a flat head-to-head at that price does nothing for the bankroll. If the TAB line lands anywhere near sensible, the margin markets are where the value sits for me, purely because the recent wobble makes a blowout less certain than the season totals suggest. Happy to be talked out of it if someone's got tape on those two losses. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Touchline, I'd temper the $1.25 confidence a touch. I could be wrong, but the form line is the nuance here: LWWWL means two of their three losses sit in their last five. Over 14 matches they're 11-3 with 515 for and 325 …Fair point on the form line Chris, but two losses in five doesn't scare me off at home. Took the Chiefs -12 in Hamilton earlier in the season and it landed comfortably - that attack puts up points on anyone. My play: Chiefs by 15+ head-to-head straight into the multi, short price is fine when the value's in the margin band. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Amy stirring the pot again 😂 Josh, one good -12 win doesn't erase that form line mate, LWWWL worries me a bit tbh. Still taking Chiefs at home tho, nothing like sitting in Waikato Stadium when they click 🔥🙌You don't abandon your own.
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The 515-325 goal diff is the number nobody's quoting yet, and it's worth more than the raw win count. That's a +190 differential across 14 matches. Roughly 13-14 points of margin per game on average, which says the scoring machine Josh loves comes with actual defensive structure behind it, not just junk-time tries against bottom feeders. Compare that to their points conceded (325): at home, where Josh wants his -12, that average margin gets fat enough that the line landing twice already makes sense. There's a nuance in the form line though. LWWWL over five is noise until you know who the losses were against, and at 51 points from 14 with second locked up, week-to-week rotation matters more than the W/L sequence itself. Small sample on the last two rounds, so I'd weight the full-season margin over the recent wobble. I'm with Josh on Chiefs at home, but I'd take the line around -8 rather than chase -12 purely because the TAB will have priced the form dip in already.
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Two losses in five and everyone's still calling this a machine?? 😱 trust me I was at Waikato for the last one at home, our lot never make it easy, second half had me chewing my sleeve off 🤬 515 points sounds lovely till a Canes defence shuts the door. I'd rather take the line than -12 tbh, Chiefs by 8-ish 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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FrontRow, two losses in five is exactly why I keep my own table rather than going off vibes. There's a nuance here with the Chiefs: that LWWWL line looks shaky until you check who they dropped points against and by how much. Averaging 13-14 points of margin across the season doesn't vanish because of a wobble, and sides with a +190 differential rarely turn into punts overnight. Small sample though — five weeks tells you far less than fourteen. My take for Hamilton: I'd take the Chiefs on the head-to-head, skip the -12 and similar lines. If the TAB price is as short as Josh reckons, the value's thin anyway, so a modest stake or leaving the NZ$ in the pocket is perfectly rational. Anyone claiming a Canes-style defensive shutout is guaranteed is guessing; anyone calling the -12 safe as houses after that recent home stumble is guessing louder. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeat, "check who they lost to", nah mate, a loss is a loss 😤 you're all talking yourselves into it. Hamilton crowd or not, I've seen our lot choke at home too many times... 11-3 looks shiny till the crunch games 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Funny thing about "a loss is a loss", the ladder already disagrees with you, FullbackNut. I keep a per-round table and by any margin-based count the Chiefs' three losses cost them less than most teams' single bad afternoon. Depends how you count it, sure, but if you weight losses by scoreline, 11-3 with +190 is comfortably the strongest profile in the comp, form wobble or not. I could be wrong, but the split for me is venue: at Waikato I'd take them comfortably even at TAB odds that short, because their home scoring rate holds up even in the tight ones FrontRow sat through. Away against a Canes-type defence is where I'd want a line rather than the head-to-head, and even then only small stakes. Context matters more than the raw W column here.
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Loaded up on them at home anyway, head-to-head plus the line, small multi leg with an anytime try scorer, NZ$40 all up. Yeah nah, FullbackNut, I hear the choking worry, but 11-3 pays my bills if it lands. See you blokes after fulltime in Hamilton 💸🔥Value over a big price 💸