Can someone explain arbing to me like I'm five?
Don't laugh at me please 🙈 but I keep seeing the word "arbitrage" thrown around in the betting threads and I have no clue what it actually means. Like, I've heard people say you can bet every possible outcome across different bookies and lock in a profit no matter who wins? How does that even work - wouldn't the odds never line up nicely enough for that?
And if it's some sort of free money trick, why do the TAB and the offshore books apparently ban or limit punters who do it? Surely they'd want our money either way 😅 If someone could explain it like I'm five (or like a 21 year old delivery driver who's still learning this), I'd really appreciate it. Is there a catch I'm missing, like needing a big bankroll to make it worth it?
6 posts
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✓no laughing here mate, took me a while to click too. say one tab has the All Blacks at $2.10 and an overseas book has the other side at $2.05 - back both and you've locked in a couple percent no matter the result, that's the whole trick. the catch is there's no such thing as a free lunch: the books spot the pattern fast and limit your account to pocket change, and TAB's pretty quick about it too, so it's a grind for small margins rather than easy money.Been here longer than some have followed.
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That clicked for me mostly, but if both bets still cost you money up front, how big do the odds gaps need to be before you actually profit? 🤔Learn something new every day.
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no such thing as free money, young fella - the gap just has to be big enough that 1 divided by each odds adds up to less than one, e.g. $2.10 and $2.05 both together work out under even money so you win slightly more than you staked either way. the catch is margins get eaten by fees, accounts get restricted sharpish once a book spots the pattern (TAB and the others all track it), and one leg getting voided can leave you exposed. seen worse traps in my time, but arbing is slow work for small cents 😄Seen it all, lads.
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Fair questions from Ultra88, but that example's razor thin, one price move before you get the second bet on and your "guaranteed" profit becomes a guaranteed loss. I could be wrong, but that's the catch.Do the math before you argue.
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The real killer nobody mentions is account limits. Run a few arbs and TAB or the offshore books will slash you down to pocket-change stakes before you've even made NZ$50 profit. That's the catch FrontRowFan is dancing around: they hate guaranteed winners because every arber is bleeding their margin. My two cents from doing this half-seriously for a bit: the maths only works if you can get full stake on both legs at those prices, and the odds move constantly. Miss the second leg or take a worse number and you're carrying a naked position, that's a straight loss if the other side lands. I gave up on arbs and went back to my weekend multis, honestly. Bankroll is everything, and grinding 2% edges while betting NZ$500 a pop to win NZ$10 doesn't pay for the stress. If you want the safe version, just treat any "risk-free" pitch as a warning sign. 🍺Up one week, down the next. Classic.