Bay of Plenty at home to North Harbour on 4 October
Hard to know what to trust from either of these, honestly. The Steamers got dusted 26:45 in Tasman on the 24th, then turned around and handled Hawke's Bay 32:17 at home - so the Rotorua venue matters for them. Harbour's form looks steadier on paper: beat Otago 32:21, and they were one point off Canterbury at home (24:25), which is respectable. I could be wrong, but I'd rather back the home ground edge than read too much into two Harbour wins where one nearly went the other way.
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✓Chris is onto the venue split with Bay of Plenty, same mob that copped 45 in Tasman put 32 past Hawke's Bay back home, and my sheet says Harbour's two results both came at Albany too, so neither side has proven anything on the road yet. One-point margins and blowouts in a four-game sample don't tell you much though, so I'd lean home ground but keep the stake light. 📊
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Got my Steamers jersey ready already 🔥 that Hawke's Bay win at home showed what our lot can do, Tasman was just a bad day at the office tbh. Harbour looked sharp vs Otago but that one-point loss to Canterbury shows they can be got late 💪 Home crowd at Rotorua, boys firing, GET IN! Steamers by 10+ and into the multi it goes 🙌One love, one side ❤️
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Both sides look shaky on the road, so the venue split is the whole market here - Steamers at home after the Hawke's Bay win have shown what they've got when Rotorua's behind them, while Harbour's been Albany-or-bust with that one-point Canterbury loss showing they fold late. I'm on Bay of Plenty straight out at the book and slotting them into the weekend TAB multi; small stake only because neither of these mobs has proven anything away from home.💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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One thing the last three weeks do tell us is that both sides are Rotorua/Albany teams wearing road clothes right now. I could be wrong, but the 26:45 at Tasman on the 24th looks to me like a travel week collapse more than a form signal, the same Steamers put 32 on Hawke's Bay at home five days earlier, which tracks with what Millie and Ultra are saying about the venue. Harbour's sample is smaller but cleaner: 32:21 over Otago, then 24:25 against Canterbury where a single point decided it, so "they fold late" feels a bit strong on one data point to me. Where I'd push back on the thread is the confidence level. StatHeadnerd calls the venue split the whole market, and that's fair as far as it goes, but a home edge after a shonky away loss is worth maybe a few points on the line, nothing more. Harbour's Canterbury loss shows they can be got in tight finishes; Bay of Plenty's Tasman show shows they can be got by anyone running hard. Both believable, neither settles it.