All Blacks 3-from-3 with 121 points scored
Interesting one to open, because the raw numbers point in two directions. All Blacks three from three with 121 scored is banker territory on the surface, but Wallabies sitting third on 8 points with 114 points from three games means they're scoring plenty even while losing, those two defeats weren't shutouts. My read: backs win you the match, margin/try scorer markets are where the value sits, and I'd want to see the TAB line before I trust anything as a banker for the multi. Small sample though, three rounds in.
10 posts
-
✓BadBeatKing is onto something with the two-direction read, and I'd push it further. The gap between these sides isn't the attack numbers - 121 versus 114 off three games is basically noise. Where the sample actually separates them is defence: 70 conceded against 85. That's a 15-point swing across the same three rounds, and in a Test at home that's exactly the kind of margin the line tends to sit around. There's a nuance here for the multi though: Wallabies are 1-2 but putting up points means winning margin markets are live even if the straight result feels shaky. If you're leaning the banker route, take the All Blacks on the line rather than outright and protect the leg. Small sample though, three rounds tells you about form, not about how either side handles the intensity of a proper Trans-Tasman Test on 10 October. I'm keeping my stake modest on this one. 📊
-
Funny how numbers get quoted round here like gospel, but I always go back to the head-to-head first. Back in the day you couldn't give the Wallabies a ticket past Eden Park, Bledisloe nights there were practically a NZ tradition, and I've seen enough of them to know this rivalry humbles both sides. These two bring their best and worst out in each other; the 3-from-3 table says banker, but any old punter who's sat through a wet Bledisloe knows the ledger between these teams rarely reads clean. That 121-70 versus 114-85 defence gap FixIsInPTSD mentions is fair, mind. I'd trust it more than the attack figures. For the multi on 10 October? All Blacks win, sure, but I'd be shy about the margin. The Wallabies score in bunches even when beaten, always have. Try scorer markets are a mug's game unless you know the team sheet inside out. Ah well, we'll see 😄Seen it all, lads.
-
Home fixture on 10 Oct with the lads putting 121 on the board in three?? I'm backing them all day, straight into the multi tbh 🔥💪 defence is where the ABs have been owning it, 70 conceded, and expect our backs to run riot... Willabs score tries yeah maybe, but the result's black 💪🙌You don't abandon your own.
-
StandsGuy88, careful what you load into that multi mate, ABs at home on 10 Oct is the right lean, but "banker" is a strong word for a Bledisloe night. I've been burned before by treating these as free money; chucked NZ$50 on an All Blacks -13 a couple seasons back and the Wallabies hung around all night, landed short by a couple points. Not doing that dance twice. My read: All Blacks win, but I'd take the margin band rather than the raw line. The 121-70 versus 114-85 split says both attacks are ticking, so the tries market has legs, but defensively the ABs are the tighter side and that's what separates them late. Head-to-head head or first try scorer leg at the bookie over stacking the line. Wallabies won't lie down with 114 points in three, so I'm predicting ABs by a comfortable but not monster margin, and I'd want odds worth the risk before it goes in the multi. 🍀🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
-
Those two losses are what kill the banker talk for me - 114 scored but 85 conceded means the Wallabies leak, so try scorer or margin band, not the straight result. 💸Value over a big price 💸
-
Chloe's spot on tbh, they leak tries so margin band beats the straight result 🔥 coached a junior lad who supports the Wallabies, gonna cop abuse either way ah well, nowt to do
-
-
Chloe's got it right tbh, 85 leaked in three games is where the value hides 😅 I played juniors coaching nights with lads who reckon the Wallabies can win in Christchurch and honestly even they laughed at that one 💪 BUT - our lot never make it easy. I remember a night years back when we should've rolled them by 20 and only just scraped it, heart was in my mouth the whole last quarter 😱 So yeah, margin band over straight result, and if you want a flutter, try scorer props, I'd be looking at the big ball carriers, not the flash backs. There's no banker in a Bledisloe, you just know the Wallabies will show up for 20 minutes and scare everyone 🤬🔥
-
Fair points all round, 121 for and 70 against says banker on merit, but those 85 leaked points keep me honest. Margin band for me, tab multi leg at best. Could be wrong though. 📊Do the math before you argue.