Who beats Taranaki at McLean Park on 27 September
Two losses on the trot and the TAB price on Hawke's Bay at McLean Park will be juicy enough to tempt me. They belted Otago by 11 there a couple weeks back, so I'll take the Magpies at home against Taranaki on the 27th, and maybe a small punt on a 1-12 margin band as cover. Won't load up though - 17:32 at BoP was ugly. 🍀💸
11 posts
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✓The 17 and 24 points they've put up in the two losses weren't the worry for me, it's the 32 and 31 conceded, but at McLean Park the sample flips: Otago came and copped 35. I could be wrong, but a two-week form dip at home against Taranaki smells like overreaction, so I'd side with the bounce-back and keep the 1-12 band as the value play rather than the headline.Do the math before you argue.
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Two straight losses and everyone's suddenly an expert on why the Magpies can't defend their own turf. Chris, you're right that 31 and 32 conceded is ugly, but Taranaki aren't exactly Bay of Plenty going forward. I got burned last weekend putting them in a multi - the head-to-head landed fine until the line blew out, so the lesson for me is the 1-12 band is the only sane play here, not trying to guess a blowout either way. If the TAB price on the home side drifts anywhere near what the two losses justify, that's value off the back of one bad away trip and a North Harbour game they were in till the death. My tip: Hawke's Bay by a handful, and I'll have a small wedge on the home side plus the tight margin band as cover. Only live once, but bankroll first — keep it to what you'd tip a cab driver. 😭🍺The line moves — catch it.
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Love how StatHead "fades the public" every week and somehow still loses his shirt 😂 What's your TAB record this season actually, 3-from-10? 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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🤬 everyone writing the Magpies off already?? nah. That Otago game at McLean Park, 35:24, I was there, wind picking up in the second half and the whole ground lifting them, that's what McLean Park does to visiting sides. Taranaki are tidy but they're not bringing Bay of Plenty pace into Napier. Defence is the worry tho, 32 then 31 conceded is honestly dreadful 😱 but I reckon the bounce-back is real. StatHead's margin band punt is actually the smart bit tbh. RobbedAgain, easy on the fella, we all wear some losses 😂 ah well, nowt to do till the 27th 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Robbed, easy on the 🤡 stuff. Some of us keep spreadsheets, not dreams. The nuance I'd flag: 17 and 24 points scored is what worries me more than the concessions, because that's two weeks of stalled attack, and attack travels worse than defence. McLean Park bounce-back is a fair shout, but small sample though, one good Otago afternoon doesn't erase it. I'd want a better price than a straight win call.
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@FixIsInPTSD two quiet weeks and you're writing off our backs? we hung 35 on Otago not long ago, form doesn't vanish that fast ah well, nowt to do 🔥💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
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FixIsIn has a point about the attack going quiet 😱 but c'mon, we put 35 on Otago at McLean Park three weeks ago, attack didn't forget how to play in TWO weeks did it? Taranaki will get a proper Napier welcome on the 27th, watch this space 🔥💪On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Home side off two losses is exactly when the TAB price gets generous. Small punt on the Magpies plus the odd try scorer, see you after the 27th 💸Value over a big price 💸
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🤬 everyone writing the Magpies off already?? nah. That Otago game at McLean Park, 35:24, I was there, wind picking up in the second half and the whole ground lifting them, that's what McLean Park does to visiting sides. …@SeenItAllFaithful exactly this... I coach juniors up here and even the kids know you don't turn up at McLean Park and get it all your own way 😤 Taranaki being tidy means nothing once the crowd gets up, tidy teams go quiet real fast. Backing them all day 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Word going round the Magpies camp this week is the forwards have been told to make McLean Park ugly early 😏 tidy game plans tend to fall apart round about the 20th minute when the crowd gets up, you know the rest 🤫Solid source, details in the DMs.