Otago -7 at home after two away trips, is the TAB line too generous?
Yeah nah, -7 doesn't scare me here. Otago that Harbour loss six days later is the classic trap result after a 50-burger on Counties. One flat away trip and everyone forgets the form before it. Auckland shipping 40 at home to Manawatu tells me their defence is leakier than anything Otago showed. My read: the real Otago is the Counties version, and back home the line lands. Had NZ$20 on them giving the start in my weekend multi anyway, so obviously I'm talking my book 😄 Only worry is a short turnaround body. If their pack looks leggy early I'd want the 7 not the over.🔥
13 posts
-
✓Convenient how the 50 on Counties counts as real form but the 21-32 against Harbour six days later is a "trap result". Same team, same fortnight. You don't get to keep one and bin the other because it suits the read. Harbour turned up that night and did their job; nobody's giving them credit for anything. And "leakier than anything Otago showed"? Otago conceded 32 themselves. Auckland shipped 40 at home to Manawatu, sure, but they also ground out a 24-22 away win at Tasman the week before. Both defences have holes, so the TAB line is basically asking which version walks out on 1 October. I'll believe -7 is generous when I actually see Otago's team sheet backing up their first-choice pack after the Harbour trip. Until then I'm not touching it either way.Sample first, conclusions after.
-
Got a spreadsheet open on this exact fixture, so bear with me. Lucy's read on the Harbour game being a trap is fair, but there's a nuance here: one dommy six-day turnarounds after a blowout are noisy, small sample though it is. Auckland conceding 40 at home to Manawatu is the number I trust more, because defensive lapses travel; I'd want at least -7 worth of cushion before touching the line. 📊Numbers > vibes.
-
RobReds has a point actually, both results count. But the Manawatu one is the sticky one for me, Auckland losing 34-40 at home to arguably the softest side in the comp? That's the real form line, not noise. Six days turnaround after a blowout happens to everyone; letting 40 on your own turf doesn't. I've had a lazy NZ$20 on Otago -7 already and I'm not touching the middle. And in reality, how many times has a team come home off two away trips and rolled a side that just got beaten by Manawatu? I'd love to hear it, genuinely. Someone take the other side properly instead of spreadsheet cosplay.😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
RobbedAgain, mate, you're the closest to sane in here 😏. Losing 40 at home to Manawatu is a proper red flag, that's the result I'd trust too. Harbour loss was six days after a festival, sure, but Auckland's leak has no excuse at all. Caveat from me though, I got burnt last season taking a line like this the week after everyone piled on, and my ROI reminded me who's boss 🤡💸. So instead of touching Otago -7 I'm just asking: what value is actually left at that price if every punter and his dog agrees the line's generous? TAB doesn't hand out gifts on 1 October, ever. The "too generous" crowd might be the munted ones here 😂
-
RobReds is onto something with the cherry-picking, though I could be wrong, but I'd weight Auckland's 34-40 home loss to Manawatu more heavily than either Otago result, simply because it happened with full rest at home. What I keep circling back to on my own table: Otago's fortnight was two away trips, and coming back to Carisbrook off a six-day turnaround is where the -7 gets tested. 📊Do the math before you argue.
-
Chris is onto it, full rest at home changes everything. Still wouldn't touch -7, both these sides leak like a colander 😏Any stat can be bent.
-
Worth noting Harbour ran 32 on them too, so Otago's defence wobbled with rest as well. Small sample though. Two games each proves very little either way.
-
Supporter_88 called it, colander derby 😂 losing at home to Manawatu with full rest is the worst result on the board, way worse than Otago wobbling six days after a road party. Still, my wallet remembers every time I've backed a team off a 50-burger, so -7 can get lost unless it drifts to 4 or 5. I'm on the fence at that price, don't @ me.It's a lottery, not sport.
-
Before the hangover excuse gets another run, my running sheet says the Harbour loss came nine days after Counties, not six, Otago were plenty fresh and Harbour still put 32 on them. Going forward the turnaround is actually tighter for the home side: five days from North Harbour to this one, while Auckland have had six since Manawatu. I could be wrong, but that trims the full-rest argument Chris is running. I'm with FixIsInPTSD on the sample, two games is a whisper. And the part nobody's mentioned: Auckland's only win in this window was a two-point escape at Tasman, so neither side carries form that justifies a big number. I keep my own table every round and pricing a team off a 50-burger is how the TAB taxes optimism, so Model_Head's wait-for-drift instinct looks sound. Paying seven at home would want Otago's set piece answering a few questions first. 📊Do the math before you argue.
-
FrontRowFan with the receipts, love it 😂 every punter's got a hangover theory until someone checks the actual days between games. That said I'll cop to paying TAB good money for Otago off a blowout once and never again, so Model_Head's wallet trauma is relatable. Auckland losing at home to Manawatu is somehow still uglier though 🤡Any stat can be bent.
-
FrontRowFan is right on the calendar, I checked my own sheet, Counties away was the 17th, Harbour the 26th, so that's a nine-day gap. Otago had plenty of recovery time and still leaked 32, which pushes me towards reading the Harbour game as a genuine defensive issue rather than a flat trip. What interests me more for this line though is Auckland's side of it: conceding 40 at home to Manawatu with full rest is arguably the worst data point on the board, and they only beat Tasman by two. I could be wrong, but if either defence is a coin flip right now it's Auckland's, so -7 to a team that just put 50 on someone (even if that was nine days before Harbour) looks tight but defensible. Small sample of two games each, context matters, and I'd want to see how the TAB line moves before deciding whether there's any value in it.
-
Nine-day gap kills my hangover angle too, so I'm reading Harbour as real. But Auckland shipping 40 at home to Manawatu? If the line drifts anywhere near -5 I'll have a small punt on Otago, otherwise I'm staying out and just putting them in the try scorer market instead. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.