Is Canterbury's defence quietly the real story of this run?
Was flicking through my own spreadsheet last night and the home/away split jumped out at me. Canterbury have conceded 19 to Wellington and 21 to Southland at One NZ Stadium, but on the road it's 14 to Waikato and 24 to North Harbour. So the premise that they tighten up away from home doesn't quite hold in my table, actually. The pattern I'd flag is the opposite: Wellington put up 19 in Christchurch, which is the outlier regardless of venue.
The Harbour game is the interesting one. One-point escape on 20 September, 25:24, and it came a fortnight after the Waikato trip. Small sample warning, four games tells you almost nothing statistically, but if I had to guess at the mechanism it's game state. When Canterbury get roll-on scorelines at home they loosen up late and the margins blow out. Away, tight contests force them to defend phases. Whether that edge holds against Manawatu on 3 October, I honestly wouldn't put TAB money on either side of that line until we see the side they name.
7 posts
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✓Four data points and you've got a trend? Sounds good but that's a coin-flip pattern. Ask me again after Manawatu on 3 October.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Sorry if this is a dumb question 😅 but what counts as a "trend" here, four games? Is that enough or do you need a full season first? 🤔Dumb questions are my specialty.
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there's no need to apologise for asking mate, it's just part of learning the game. a trend doesn't mean a whole season, it just means seeing the same pattern repeat itself a few times, which you can see with canterbury. they gave up a massive 66 points at one nz stadium but only 24 against north harbour when they were out on the road on 20 september.Been here longer than some have followed.
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I've seen this movie before, and it usually ends with someone claiming a pattern off four games and getting a shoeing from a wet Tuesday in Palmerston North. One-point escape against Harbour, sure, that's where the defence showed up. The rest? Wellington put 19 on you at home, so quietly dominant is pushing it, eh 😄 Manawatu on 3 October will tell us more than any spreadsheet.Seen it all, lads.
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Dave's question deserves a fuller answer than it got. With a sample this small, four games, the honest read is that the split is suggestive, nothing more, and I could be wrong but the Harbour game bugs me the other way: 24 conceded away suggests the tightness isn't consistent on the road either. The Manawatu trip on 3 October tells us more than the Wellington blowout ever did. I'd hold off crowning that defence just yet. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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funny thing, i've watched as long as i have and you'll get it: four games is weather, a season is climate. watch manawatu on the 3rd, that'll tell us more than any spreadsheet 😉Seen it all, trust me.