Four teams separated by a whisker at the top, three winless outfits sinking at the bottom…
Interesting quirk in that table before anyone asks, the Springboks and the All Blacks are both on 15 points, yet the number of matches column reads differently for France and Scotland, so check your source before you quote it. I could be wrong, but the shape of this competition looks like this to me:
1. Top end: Springboks and All Blacks locked together on 15, France breathing down their necks on 12, Scotland lurking on 11. That's four teams covered by a single result - one bonus point win flips the whole order.
2. The interesting bit for me is France. A four-point gap sounds comfortable until you remember they only need to win while the leaders split points elsewhere, and suddenly it's a three-way sprint.
3. Scotland at 11 are the dark horse nobody's pricing properly. Punters on the TAB are probably still treating them as fourth favourite, but eleven points from the pace-setters means they're one good away performance from the top two.
4. Bottom end: Japan cling to 4, Fiji and Italy both sitting on zero. My read is the escape route runs through Japan - they've got points on the board, the other two don't, and zero after several rounds is a hole that historically doesn't get climbed out of.
5. So my answer to the thread question: watch the top. The relegation scrap will resolve itself eventually, but a four-team title race with one round's worth of points between first and fourth is genuinely rare.
For me it's the Boks to hold serve at the front, France to close the gap by the next round. Anyone keeping their own ladder, happy to compare notes, mine's updated after every round. 📊
15 posts
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✓Nah Chris, gotta disagree, the relegation scrap is where the real drama is 😅 Fiji and Italy both on zero after three rounds, that's a horror show. My heart's obviously with the ABs though, 15 points locked with the Boks and we've got the class to kick clear 🖤 Reckon we take it out from here. France at 12 will chase hard, Scotland at 11 are sneaky, but we just know this squad turns up when it matters 💪 The top four covered by basically one result - that's the bit I'm watching every round. Also heart says Italy escape somehow, they always find a way when you write them off 😂One love, one side ❤️
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Diehard, "we just know this squad turns up when it matters" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that post. That's the classic fan move, feelings first, table second. So let's apply the same standard you'd want applied to Scotland or France: 1. Level on 15 means level. Nothing in the table says the ABs have the edge over the Boks. If anything the Boks' forward pack has been the more consistent unit over recent seasons, and that shows up in tight rounds like this one. 2. Fixture difficulty. Nobody in this thread has actually checked who plays whom in the run-in. Chris is the only one who even hinted at it. If the ABs get the Boks home and France away, "class to kick clear" becomes "class to survive". A four-point gap at the top can evaporate in a single round. France sitting on 12 proves that. 3. "Turns up when it matters" - they still have to matter first. Mid-season form is a snapshot, and the All Blacks have had plenty of snapshots in recent years where the crunch game went the other way. 4. On Italy finding a way: I'll believe it when I see it. Zero from three rounds with Japan already on 4. They don't need a miracle, they need Japan, and even then it's conditional on winning something themselves. I'll concede the top four race is the better watch, that much I agree with Chris on. But pick the ABs to win it because of the actual run-in and the set-piece numbers, or don't pick them at all. "Heart says" is fine for a chat with your mates, not for a ladder that's this tight.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Reminds me of a night at Eden Park back in the amateur days, when the Bledisloe was decided by a single kick and half the crowd were still in the carpark for the start. Watch this game long enough and you learn one thing: tight tables like this usually stay tight right up to the last whistle. Chris makes a fair point about the top end, and I lean his way. The way these things usually shake out, the title gets decided by who can grind out an ugly away win when the legs are gone - the flash stuff tends to even itself over the rounds. Springboks and All Blacks level on 15, France only three back, Scotland snapping at 11? That's the kind of logjam that goes down to the final Saturday, and honestly those are the best ones to watch. Seen worse than a four-way scrap. But I'll give Diehard a bit of credit too. The bottom end has its own story. Zero from three rounds is a deep hole, agreed, yet I've seen sides written off in October lift a trophy in June, or something close to it. Italy especially have a habit of biting someone when everyone's already buried them. Japan on 4 points at least have something to defend; the other two are playing with house money, and desperate teams are dangerous teams. If I were putting a multi on at the TAB, and some weekends I do, small stuff, keeps the drive home interesting, I'd back the Boks to hold serve and France to close the gap. But the relegation fight? Worth keeping half an eye on, because it won't resolve itself as quietly as Chris reckons. 😉 The young lot never saw a table this tight decided in the last round, and I half envy them for getting to find out now.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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RobReds makes a fair point on the top end, but the bottom is where the maths is actually brutal, and nobody's done that arithmetic properly yet. Here's my read on the relegation zone with the table as it stands. Japan on 4 points from their three rounds are the fulcrum of the whole thing. Fiji and Italy on zero aren't chasing Japan so much as they're chasing the very concept of a point. The gap to safety isn't really 4 points in the conventional sense, it's "win some games while hoping Japan keeps losing", and that's two conditions stacked on top of each other. Any punter who's ever laid a multi on the TAB knows how compound conditions behave: each leg has to land, and the probability multiplies down fast. There's a nuance here worth flagging though. Zero after three rounds feels catastrophic, and it is, but the sample is tiny. Three rounds is a snapshot, nothing more, I've kept my own ladders long enough to know a side can look buried in round 3 and be clear of trouble by round 6 if the fixtures fall kindly. The real question I'd be asking is who Japan play next, because if they snag another win or even a losing bonus point, the hole for Fiji and Italy deepens by a round's worth of points in one Saturday afternoon. Conversely, if Japan get pumped, suddenly it's a genuine three-way scrap and Diehard's drama argument gets legs. My honest read: Italy escape more often than Fiji in these situations because they've historically found a way to bite someone, as SeenItAll said. But biting someone requires at least one result, and you can't bite anyone from zero points if Japan keeps ticking over. Watch the Japan fixtures more than the Italy ones. That's the tell. 📊
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Had NZ$20 riding on Fiji to dodge the drop at the start of the season and that's already dead money, so consider me invested in this bottom-end debate 😭 For what it's worth, FixIsInPTSD has got it right - the Japan fixtures are the whole market. Zero from three and needing Japan to keep losing is a two-leg multi that punts have been putting on and forgotten about for years. Each leg has to land, and you know how that goes. My actual prediction: Springboks take it out. Level on 15 with the ABs but their forward pack grinds out the ugly away wins that SeenItAll was talking about, and that's what separates teams in a logjam this tight. France at 12 close the gap but run out of rounds, three back is gettable, chasing two teams ahead of you while they keep winning isn't. I'd rather take a shorter price on a side that keeps delivering than value over a big price on Scotland at 11 needing everything to go right. Down the bottom, Japan survive on 4. Fiji and Italy both need results AND Japan to stink the place out for another three rounds, I just can't see it. If I had to split them, Italy escape more often in these spots, but that's heart over ledger. Relegation market on the TAB probably has Fiji shortest and honestly that's where I'd look too. Lesson from yesterday's slip: never build a multi on a team needing help from another team. Two conditions stacked, probability multiplies down every time. 🔥
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i'll tell you what amuses me, watching you young fellas go back and forth about the maths of it all. Every one of you has got a spreadsheet open somewhere and not one of you has mentioned the thing that actually decides tight tables. weather. travel. a tight head propping at minute 70 with his legs gone. RobReds has a point about run-in fixtures, sure, but he wants it both ways, tells Diehard off for heart over ledger, then claims the Boks' scrum is the decider without a single ruck having been played yet. that's heart dressed up in a suit, my friend 😉 and FixIsInPTSD, the compound conditions argument is tidy, I'll grant you that. but Japan on 4 keeping "ticking over"? back in my day we called that assuming the other bloke stays bad, and it's the oldest way to lose a bet there is. one decent Japanese performance and your whole two-leg multi inverts on you. you've seen it happen. I've seen it happen more times than I care to count. Diehard_Zone, son, NZ$20 on Fiji to dodge the drop — why on earth would you take that line at the start of the season? punting on a side to avoid relegation before a ball's been kicked is like backing a horse because you like its name. dead money the moment you clicked confirm 😄 me, I'm with the old bloke upthread, these logjams stay tight till the last Saturday more often than any of you are pricing in. four teams inside one result at the top, three sinking at the bottom? you don't get to pick which end to watch. you watch the whole table, or you're guessing at half the story. though I'll admit, watching Italy prove everyone wrong again would be a fine way to spend a winter afternoon.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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MatchdayTillIDie, you've caught RobReds with his hand in the cookie jar and I enjoyed it. He lectures Diehard about heart over ledger, then declares the Boks' pack the difference-maker on the strength of... recent seasons, apparently. That's a feeling with references attached. The set-piece argument only counts once this season's rucks are counted, and three rounds in, the table still says 15 and 15. And to FixIsInPTSD and Diehard_Zone, I'll concede the compound conditions logic is sound as far as it goes. Two legs stacked, probability multiplies down, fine. But you're both assuming Japan stays on 4 the whole way home, which is exactly the assumption Matchday called out. One Japanese win or even a losing bonus point and your tidy model inverts. You can't build a relegation read on another team's incompetence, that's the same sin as Diehard's "class to kick clear", just wearing a calculator. Where I'll push back on Matchday though: weather and travel decide margins between even teams. When two sides are level on 15, what separates them over the run-in is the fixture list and who can win ugly away from home. That part of RobReds' post survives, even if the conclusion doesn't. So sure, the Boks might take it out, on condition that someone shows me the actual run-in instead of gesturing at forward packs. Bottom end, my ledger still says Fiji. Zero from three with Japan already on 4, needing results AND favour from a side that only has to snag one more point. Italy I'll grant a pulse, they've bitten people before. Fiji getting off the floor from nothing? Show me the numbers first.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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just got back from coaching the juniors so forgive the short post 😅 honestly mate the one thing I keep thinking is zero from three at THIS point of the comp. three rounds in and Fiji and Italy are staring at a mountain, while Japan on 4 are basically just needing one more result to feel safe. that's a proper knife fight down there 🤬 and yes, 15 and 15 at the top with France sniffing at 12 and Scotland on 11, I've watched the ABs come right when everyone's written them off more times than I can count. remember sitting in the pub for that crunch match years ago where we thought it was over at halftime, blokes were already leaving, and we snuck home in the dying minutes - half the town went mental 🙌🔥 so nah, I'm not writing anyone off, either end of the table. truth be told I'll be glued to the whole thing, through thick and thin eh. someone's gonna get bit before it's all said and done, and Japan hold their own fate more than the other two realise... ah well, nowt to do but watch it play outYou don't abandon your own.
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Diehard's slip lesson is the most useful thing posted in this thread so far, I've burned NZ$50 before on a multi where one leg needed the Blues to do me a favour, never again. Two conditions stacked is how the TAB quietly eats your money. Where I'd add the caveat though: everyone keeps treating Japan on 4 as "safe enough" and that's the leg I wouldn't touch. One decent Japanese result and Fiji and Italy are a round deeper in the hole, sure, but Japan haven't exactly been banking wins either - 4 points from three rounds is scraping, and if they go winless for another stretch suddenly there's a genuine three-way scrap and the relegation market reprices overnight. Any punter who loaded up early on the drop market at short odds is going to sweat that. Top end, I'm with RobReds more than the old fellas reckon, 15 and 15 means you price the run-in or you price nothing. My rule in a logjam this tight is take the side that can win ugly away and lay the favourite-at-home narrative. Boks' pack earning its keep counts more than "class to kick clear" ever did, and I say that as someone who's had plenty of AB multis die in the last ten minutes 😭 So yeah, watching both ends. My weekend multi: title winner, relegation survivor, no leg needing a favour from a rival. Kept it small this time. You only live once, but weekly. 🍺Bankroll discipline wins.
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@SeenItAll_AllDay oof, the Blues letting your multi down is a special kind of pain 😅 don't laugh, but I've only ever done one multi and lost it straight away. Is two legs really that much riskier than just a single?Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
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You know what made me smile reading all this? I've sat through winters in the stands since before any of this was a professional lark, and the one thing I've learned is that a table after three rounds tells you the shape of the story, never the ending. Some of you young fellas are already writing Fiji's obituary and crowning the Boks, and I'd say hold your horses on both counts 😄 SeenItAllFaithful said it best upthread. Nobody's writing off the ABs with 15 on the board, and rightly so. I remember nights at Eden Park where we looked dead and buried at halftime and walked out hoarse. That's the top four for you: 15, 15, 12, 11, all inside one decent afternoon of each other. That part of the table I believe entirely. Any of those four can take it out, and the run-in will decide it, not the highlight reels. Where I'd tug the young ones' sleeves is the bottom. FixIsInPTSD and Diehard built a tidy case around Japan on 4, and Matchday and the skeptic lad both poked the same hole in it, you're relying on Japan staying mediocre. 4 points from three rounds is scraping by, as SeenItAll_AllDay noted, not banking safety. One decent Japanese result and suddenly Italy's "pulse" becomes a proper heartbeat. And Italy? I've seen worse sides than them claw off the canvas. They bite people. Always have. Fiji from zero, though... that I struggle with, ledger or no ledger. You need results and someone else's misfortune, and we all know how multis with two legs behave. Diehard's NZ$20 lesson is worth more than most of the spreadsheets in here. So my honest verdict after forty-odd years of watching ladders swing: believe the logjam at the top, because talent and tight tables keep themselves honest. But the relegation scrap? Wide open, mate, whatever the TAB line says this morning. Japan are live, Italy are live, and Fiji have three rounds more runway than anyone's pricing in. Who's going down? Ask me again after round six, when the weather's turned and someone's tight head is holding on by his fingernails at minute 70. Then we'll talk 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Two legs, one dodgy leg and the whole thing's cooked 😂 singles all day mate, TAB loves a multi punter more than they love the Blues 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Newbie asking the real questions in here, love it 😂 ChrisBlues, stick to singles till you've lost enough to understand the pain properly. The lads on this table above us are all a try from the post away from looking like geniuses or muppets, wait for the fanboys to pile in when their team sneaks a win and suddenly they're prophets 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.