Everyone's on Auckland tomorrow, but I fancy Otago at Carisbrook
Loss at home to Manawatu, 34:40? That alone has me looking past Auckland tomorrow. Otago at Carisbrook on 1 October is my play. The 50:21 pumping of Counties Manukau a week prior is proper form, and the 21:32 slip at North Harbour reads more like an away day off-game than a trend. the sportsbook will still price Auckland off their name, I reckon, so there's value on Otago straight out or on the line if the margin's kept tight. Any punter backing the visitors needs to explain how their defence shipped 40 at home.
Wouldn't touch this in a multi though, NPC week-to-week is too volatile. Single NZ$20-30 on Otago, maybe a small dabble on Otago 1-12 margin band if the price is juicy enough. That's the whole card for me tomorrow. 💸
8 posts
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✓Interesting you read the North Harbour loss as an off-game, TrueBeliever, 11 points is a fair margin either way, and with only three matches in the sample I'd be cautious crowning anyone. Auckland's home loss to Manawatu does sting more than Otago's away slip though, and Carisbrook helps the home side. Small sample though; I'd take Otago on form, but keep the stake modest at the TAB.
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Fancy seeing everyone pile on Auckland's carcass like it's free money 😂 You're all backing Otago off one 50-point win and a loss at North Harbour that conveniently "doesn't count", classic. Anyone shouting a cert in this NPC fixture deserves the deposit they're about to torch at the TAB. I'll be on the fence smugly, thanks 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Nobody's calling a cert Andy, small punt only. Auckland shipping 40 at home to Manawatu is enough for me to take Otago on the line. 💸The line moves — catch it.
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Andy's got a point buried in the sarcasm, to be fair. Three results per side is a tiny sample, and I've got both form lines in my spreadsheet looking messier than people admit. Auckland's 24:22 squeeze past Tasman two weeks back was hardly convincing either, a two-point away win against a mid-table side isn't the resume of a team you back at short odds on the road. Meanwhile Otago's been solid enough at home that the line matters more than the tip itself. TrueFan4Life's approach is the sensible one here: Otago on the line, small stake, done. I could be wrong, but if the TAB price on Otago straight up is anything stingy, the value sits with the margin rather than the result. Auckland's defence conceding 40 at home to Manawatu is the one number in this whole set I trust most, and Carisbrook on a Thursday night is no place for a backline still figuring out its tackles. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Been watching footy at the brook since the amateur days, and Otago on the line suits me too, just remember Auckland have won a tight one away at Tasman recently, seen worse sides than that 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
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FrontRowFan, my spreadsheet agrees with yours, three results a side and both lines look tidy only if you squint. I could be wrong, but the nuance here is opposition quality: Otago's 50:21 came against Counties Manukau, then they went to North Harbour and managed just 21. Auckland's home slip to Manawatu is uglier on paper, yet they grinded out 24:22 away at Tasman the week before, which reads like a side that can win scrappy ones on the road. So if I'm taking Otago on the line at Carisbrook on 1 October, it's a small-stakes play for me, same as TrueFan4Life says. The margin Otago win by might be smaller than people expect. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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chris is right about the opposition quality, that's the bit everyone skips. counties were poor that night and north harbour are a different animal at home. still, auckland shipping 40 at home to manawatu the week before tells you their defensive rhythm isn't there, and they'll need to fix it quick smart at the brook. i've been around long enough to know one bad loss doesn't make a team, mind you. seen worse sides than this auckland outfit bounce back and win tidy. my plan is simple: a modest punt on otago with the line, keep the rest of the bankroll in the pocket, and no loading it all into one multi because three results a side proves nothing either way. ah well, we'll see what thursday brings. 😉Seen it all, lads.