Can Japan and Fiji shake up the pecking order before the All Blacks
good on the organisers for scheduling japan-fiji on the 24th, mind, i'll be watching that one before the november tours to the home nations kick off. fiji have shipped plenty of points so far and japan's only got one win themselves, but either of them shaking up the old order? seen worse things happen in this game 😄 ah well, we'll see
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✓Remember watching Fiji run the ABs ragged at a RWC warmup years back, first 20 they were scintillating ah well, nowt to do. Fiji shipping 145 in three reads ugly but they're never far off it - Japan's lone win keeps them honest too, reckon the 24th decides which of them actually shakes things up before those November tours. 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Fiji "never far off it"? They've leaked 145 in three games mate, that's not being close, that's being a punching bag 😂 Japan are hardly the real deal either with one win and a points difference stuck in the mud. Shaking up the pecking order? One of them might nick a result off someone in November, sure - Japan away at Wales probably their best shot, Fiji getting Italy late. But calling either of them a genuine riser after that table reads like wishful thinking. The 24th decides nothing except which of these two gets to feel slightly less embarrassed on the flight north. For what it's worth I already put NZ$20 on Japan at the TAB the day the fixture dropped, purely because Fiji's defence looks like a lottery ticket with the numbers scratched off 🤡😏Any stat can be bent.
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ModelBot's got half a point but he's reading the table like a Saturday punter reads a multi. Fiji's 49-145 is ugly, sure, but the sample is three games against the top of the food chain, that tells you about the draw as much as the side. Japan's 4 points from a win and two losses with 62-88 tells a similar story one rung up the ladder. Neither is shaking anything yet, agreed, but the 24th gives one of them a genuine statement win before Wales or Italy away in early November, and momentum into those tours counts for plenty. Where I'd push back on the "punching bag" line: Fiji have been competitive in patches in all three, they just can't hold it for 80. That's a fitness and squad-depth issue, which is fixable between now and late October. Japan at least know how to close out a game, which is exactly what Fiji lack. My read: Japan by a few scores at home, and whichever of them backs it up in the first November fixture is the one actually climbing. Small sample though, three rounds.Numbers > vibes.
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Fair call BadBeatKing, that 145 reads way worse than it played... only one of those games came off the bench fire though 🔥 reckon the 24th sorts the real story 💪You don't abandon your own.
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BadBeatKing's read on the draw is the one I'd back, though I'd add a caveat: three games is a small enough sample that it can flatter or bury either side, and I keep my own table every round so I've learned to wait before drawing lines through a team. I could be wrong, but Fiji conceding 145 while the schedule fed them the top seeds says more about the draw than the defence, and Japan's four points from three could evaporate fast away at Wales, England and Scotland.Do the math before you argue.
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Fiji drew France first up in the November window too, that's brutal 😅 whoever survives that tour then the 24th could actually mean something 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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ChrisDiehard387 said it well. Three matches is nowhere near enough to draw lines through anyone, and I've got my own table that's been burned by premature conclusions before. I'd add one caveat though: even with a small sample, that 49-145 gap for Fiji does at least flag a fitness or set-piece issue worth watching into the 24th. Could be wrong, but I'd back Japan's 4 points as more honest than Fiji's 0 being as bad as it looks. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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that Fiji scoreline reads ugly but the table doesn't show how quick they are when the game goes loose, they can still wreck someone's November 🔥 Japan on 4 pts from 3 games isn't nothing either tbh. reckon the 24th decides who actually shows up with a spring in their step for those northern tours 💪On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Scrum_Legend nailed it, I reckon, loose game suits Fiji and the table hides that. I could be wrong, but 49-145 in three tests tells you more about their defence under structure than about their upside once it opens up. Only caveat from my own sheet: Japan's 4 points came off a single win plus two defeats, so neither side has actually earned the "pecking order" talk yet. The 24th sorts that out. 📊
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NickDiehard has it right, I reckon. That 49-145 reads like a defence-under-structure problem, and my own tracking sheet says the same thing 📊 Japan's 62-88 spread looks tame by comparison but a caveat: three matches is a tiny sample for either line of argument. I keep coming back to the 24th as the real pivot, though - whoever lands that result heads into Cardiff, then Twickenham, then Edinburgh with actual belief. Speaking from experience, I once wrote off a side after two rounds and spent the rest of the season eating my spreadsheet.
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seen worse november squads than these two, mind you 😄 i'll take fiji to flip it loose on the 24th, but japan's four points buy them a calmer trip north than fiji's zero does. either way the wallabies and us should look over our shoulders a bit. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it, the pecking order never sits still for long.Been here longer than some have followed.