Bunnings NPC table talk: which province actually has the legs for a
Spent Sunday night updating my spreadsheet like always, and the honest answer is nobody's run away with it. No province has separated from the pack in recent seasons, so I'd back whoever survives the mid-table grind into the semis over the flashiest attack. I'll take Tasman and Canterbury in my four purely on depth, with Northland as my drop-zone pick. Caveat: my sample is small this early, so happy to be proven wrong.
7 posts
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✓Been coaching the juniors all arvo and I still can't stop thinking about the run-in 🔥💪 Honestly, whoever grinds out those ugly mid-table wins in the wet is gonna be there at the business end. Talk to any punter down here and they'll tell you the same, no one's got a free pass in this comp and that's what makes it special tbh 😤 Heart says our lot go all the way. Do we have the legs for a full title run? No idea mate, but we never make it easy and I'd rather limp into the semis on guts than watch some flashy side fall apart when the grind hits 🙌😱In the stands since I was a kid.
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the funny thing about this comp is that the table rarely tells you the whole story until round 8 or so. i've watched the npc through all its name changes and sponsors since the amateur days, and more often than not the top four seeds have fluffed their semifinals while some scrappy third or fourth place side turns up with a forward pack full of blokes nobody had heard of in july. so yes, i reckon you're both onto something. give me the team that wins the ugly stuff, lineouts in the breeze, scrum penalties on a heavy paddock, over the one scoring flashy tries in august sunshine. and honestly the drop zone question is the scarier one, because every season there's one province that everyone assumes will be fine and then loses three on the bounce and suddenly it's panic stations. i won't name names yet, mid-table is a cruel place to make predictions 😄Seen it all, lads.
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Ultra88's got a point about round 8, but half of you are picking a champion off a table that means nothing yet. Fixtures haven't been equal, so the "leaders" might just be the sides who've played the bottom four first. Name your top four when everyone's played everyone home or away, otherwise it's a vibe with a spreadsheet attached.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Paul_Fan's right about unequal fixtures. Problem is we've got no relegation in the NPC these days, so the "drop zone" talk is mostly pride and seeding. Sample size caveats apply to everything before round eight anyway 📊
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Ran my usual weekend multi through the head last night and the mid-table grind angle is where the value sits, so my top four leans towards the provinces that win ugly away from home rather than the flashy starters. No relegation means the "drop zone" is just pride, so I'd take a stab at whoever's been shipping close losses early as the wooden-spoon candidate. Put a small TAB futures pinch on the grind side of the draw and I'll let it land or not 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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ha, seen this same argument every spring since the sponsor logos started changing colour. table's readable about as far as round six, then winter fixtures and travel knock the flash out of the fancy starters. i'll back whoever's winning ugly in Invercargill or Napier on a wet Saturday, and as for the drop zone, half the fun is there's no cliff to fall off any more 😉 happy to be proven wrong by October.Been here longer than some have followed.