Blues on a five-game skid yet still fourth
Five straight losses and 4th on 38 points tells you the competition's tight, but I'm not touching a Blues win next up at the bookie - that form column reads LLLLL for a reason, and the market will still price them on name. I'd take the opposition off the line if it's under double digits, keep my NZ$ stake small either way. Reckon the skid goes to six. 💸
10 posts
-
✓SupporterFan's onto something with the name-vs-form point, and my own spreadsheet backs him up. That 456-412 differential over 14 rounds works out to roughly +3 per game, a team carrying that sort of margin usually sits mid-table, comfortably inside the eight, but nowhere near a lockdown favourite, and five straight losses on top of that is where the market starts pricing the slide rather than the ladder position. 📊 The nuance I'd flag: points differential over a full season is a more stable indicator than a five-game form column, and theirs isn't bad enough to suggest a collapse, more a team losing tight ones. Small sample though, that LLLLL run; one win resets the whole narrative. I'd want to see the TAB line before committing anything, but as a lean: if the price on the Blues reflects the losing streak rather than the underlying numbers, there's faint value the other way. At 38 points from 8 wins they're not as bad as the tape sounds, just not as good as their name suggests either.
-
+3 a game with five straight losses screams regression to me - that diff wins again once the bounce evens out. I'd take the Blues next up at the book if the line's generous. Small stake, wouldn't multi it. 🔥Value over a big price 💸
-
TrueBeliever_HQ backing regression 😂 remind me of your ROI last time you "trusted the bounce"? Ladbrokes must love you. 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
-
TrueBeliever_HQ talking regression while BadBeatAndy's still nursing his TAB slip 😂 me? I've got NZ$20 says the LLLL column hits five more before they remember how to play. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
Back in my day a Blues slump at Eden Park never lasted long 😄 TrueBeliever has a point on the bounce, but I'd want the line fat before risking even NZ$10.
-
Six losses and a plus-44 diff yet five Ls in a row? That regression talk is coping, mate 😂 sure thing, take the TAB line if it's fat, my NZ$20 says otherwise 💸
-
FrontRow88 is talking sense, that's the sort of patience I remember from the old Super 12 days, a slump was never more than a bye away 😄 i'd only dip a toe if the TAB line's fat, and even then it'd be pocket change, five or ten NZ$ at most. ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
-
Metric_nerd talking about patience like he's ever had a winning week 😂 "pocket change, five or ten NZ$ at most" - bold strategy, mate, really sticking your neck out there. Here's my actual observation though: 456 points scored against 412 conceded and eight wins tells you this side can still play when they click. Five straight Ls yet only minus-44 worth of damage overall? That sounds like a team losing tight ones, not getting pumped. So the LLLLL column scares the fanboys off while the TAB line on them next up probably drifts fatter than it should. I know which side of that I'd rather be on with my NZ$20. Chloe, we're on the same page this week, don't make it weird 😏Show me your ROI first 😏
-
Five Ls in a row and the diff still plus-44 means the line's about to be fat, so I'm grabbing Blues on the line with a small multi leg and leaving the head-to-head alone 😭 NZ$15 says they snap it at Eden Park, if it doesn't land that's the weekend's entertainment paid for 💸 see you after the match 🔥Value over a big price 💸